2026 Tour de France stage 16 Time Trial Preview | INEOS and Evenepoel want to stick to the plan against Pogačar

After a well-deserved second rest day, the Tour de France continues on its way toward the third and decisive week. After two weeks of dominance by Tadej Pogacar, the big question is: how will the standings look when we put the riders on time-trial bikes for 26.1 kilometers, with a small climb right from the start and a flat sprint to the finish on the big chainring? IDL Pro Cycling take a look ahead.

Following the team time trial on Day 1, the organisers have also opted for elevation gain in the individual time trial. Starting in Évian-les-Bains, the road climbs for no less than 9.7 kilometers, but importantly, at an average gradient of 4.3 percent. This is crucial, because a gradual climb still gives the aerodynamic powerhouses a significant advantage.

If we take a closer look at the nearly 10-kilometer climb, we’re talking about a sustained effort that’s almost entirely straight ahead. For the first 3 kilometers, the gradients range between 4.2 and 4.4 percent, before kilometers 4 and 5 get a bit tougher at 5.2 and 5.4 percent. After the road levels out a bit and the gradient increases sharply for a short stretch, kilometers 8 and 9 are still noteworthy, at 4.1 and 5.2 percent. As you approach the summit in Larringes, the road begins to level out somewhat.

After the first 9.7 kilometers of climbing, there’s no time to catch your breath, because we’re off on a descent that’s actually tougher than the climb. It starts off fairly straight, but halfway down, it’s all about steering, with a few nasty hairpin turns thrown in. It’s especially tricky on a time trial bike, especially at high speeds.

Once the riders have reached the bottom, we’ll have a final intermediate checkpoint just outside Thonon-Les-Bains after 18 kilometers of time trial. The first checkpoint is halfway up the climb and the second is at the summit. This way, we’ll be kept well informed of the gaps between the riders throughout the entire time trial. The final 9 kilometers are fairly flat, but we’ll need to warn the riders here as well.

The stretch leading up to the finish line in Thonon-Les-Bains involves a lot of steering, with two full U-turns, three sharp right turns, and two sharp left turns. Not ideal for riders who want to maintain their pace in the big gear. So this is a time trial for true specialists—with climbs, descents, sharp turns, and all-out sprints!

Times
Start of the first rider: 1:00 p.m CET (12:00 GMT/7:00 ET)
Last rider finishes: 5:50 p.m CET (4:50 GMT/11:50 ET)

A crucial factor in the time trial is always the weather, and it looks like conditions will be fairly similar for all riders between 1:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. For the first riders to start, it will still be a bit cooler—22 degrees—at the start in Évian-les-Bains in the early afternoon, while the last riders will set off later in the afternoon when the temperature reaches 26 degrees.

The wind is blowing from the north-northeast; for the early starters, it will be wind force 2 at the finish in Thonon-les-Bains, and for the later starters, wind force 3. In terms of temperature, there will be little difference between starting early or late; it will be around 25 degrees all day. At the top of the climb, the temperature is forecast to be 23 degrees, also with a northeasterly wind at force 2.

We’d love to tell you something different, but in the battle for the podium at the Tour de France, it looks like Tadej Pogacar will be among the best in the time trial as well. The Slovenian rider from UAE Emirates-XRG almost always delivers when it counts in a race against the clock. He won another time trial at the Tour de Suisse, and last year in the Tour de France, he finished second and first in the time trials—though the second was a mountain time trial.

In a more traditional time trial around Caen, Remco Evenepoel came out on top, and the world time trial champion appears to be the clear favorite for Stage 16. On a good day, the Belgian rider from Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe could easily gain minutes on some of the general classification contenders, though we expect someone like Pogacar to stay fairly close.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) is also usually a strong time trialist, but seems a bit more vulnerable now that he’s lost a few kilos. Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek), Paul Seixas ( Decathlon CMA CGM), and Evenepoel’s teammate Florian Lipowitz can be very dangerous in a time trial on a good day. Of the top 7, Isaac del Toro seems, on paper, to be the weakest time trialist—but is that still the case?

Typically, a time trial in the third week of a Grand Tour is mainly a race for general classification contenders, because the true time trialists are sometimes already a bit tired or have to hold back to support their team leader. In that regard, it remains to be seen how riders like Brandon McNulty and Tim Wellens (UAE), Bruno Armirail (Visma), Mattia Cattaneo (Red Bull), and Daan Hoole (Decathlon) will fare.

We do expect Mathias Vacek at Lidl-Trek to go all out for a day, because the German team has already proven that it gives everyone a chance. Teams without a true general classification contender can let their time trialists go anyway. Be sure to keep an eye on Netcompany INEOS, which—with Filippo Ganna, Thymen Arensman, Joshua Tarling, Kévin Vauquelin, and Tobias Foss —has five (!) top contenders for the time trial.

From the Dutch perspective, we’re very curious to see if Mathieu van der Poel will give the time trial a shot, especially now that Alpecin-Premier Tech has been putting a lot of time into the (team) time trial. And what can Dutch champion Huub Artz do for Lotto-Intermarché? They’d be long shots, just like Luke Plapp and Mauro Schmid at Jayco AlUla, among others.

Top Favorites: Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Filippo Ganna (Netcompany INEOS)
Dark horses: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Joshua Tarling, Thymen Arensman (Netcompany INEOS), and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Paul Seixas, Daan Hoole (Decathlon CMA CGM), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Isaac Del Toro, Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Juan Ayuso, Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Kévin Vauquelin, Tobias Foss (Netcompany INEOS), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Huub Artz (Lotto-Intermarché), and Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla)