2026 Vuelta a España points classification favourites | Van Aert vs Pedersen, or will Pogačar cause an upset!

For years, the green jersey in the Vuelta was up for grabs among the general classification contenders, but since 2021 that has changed again, and the sprinters—just like in the Giro and the Tour—are now competing for it. Will this trend continue in 2026, or will the grueling course bring about another shift? IDL Pro Cycling weighs the runners and riders.

The ASO has made significant changes to the points system since 2021, and it has been virtually identical to that of the Tour de France ever since. Riders can earn points for the points classification both at the finish line and at intermediate sprints, but the number of points varies depending on the type of stage.

As for the intermediate sprints, only the top five riders can earn points in the Vuelta. In the Tour, for example, it’s the top ten. The change the Tour made this year—awarding 70 points to the winners of flat stages—has not been adopted in Spain.

The Vuelta organizers distinguish between four types of stages: flat, hilly, mountain, and time trial. The most points can be earned in flat stages, and the fewest in mountain stages and time trials. Incidentally, there are only two stages in the first category: stages 11 and 17. That makes the intermediate sprints (where 20 points are up for grabs each time) perhaps even more important for sprinters looking to go for the win, compared to a rider like Tadej Pogacar.

Points for flat stages - Group 1: Stages 11 and 17
, 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2

Points for hilly stages—Groups 2 and 3: Stages 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 13, 15, 16, and 21
, 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2

Mountain stage points – Groups 4 and 5: Stages 4, 6, 7, 9, 12, 14, 19, and 20
, 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1

Time Trial Points - Group 6: Stages 1 and 18
, 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1

Intermediate sprints (in every stage, except time trials)
, 20, 17, 15, 13, and 10

Watch now or coming soon on In de Leiderstrui:
- 2026 Vuelta a España route preview
- General Classification Favorites
- Favorites for the mountains classification
- Favorites for the Young Rider Classification
- Fabtasy tips for the 2026 Vuelta a España

2025 Mads Pedersen
2024 Kaden Groves
2023 Kaden Groves
2022 Mads Pedersen
2021 Fabio Jakobsen
2020 Primož Roglič
2019 Primož Roglič
2018 Alejandro Valverde
2017 Chris Froome
2016 Fabio Felline

Number ten on our list is Magnus Cort. The Dane is in his final season, so this will also be his very last Grand Tour. That’s no coincidence: Cort has a strong track record in the Vuelta, with a total of six stage wins. In his last appearance, in 2021, he won three stages and finished third in the points classification.

His own team is putting Rasmus Tiller, not Cort, forward for the flatter sprints. However, Cort is a rider whose explosiveness and power allow him to excel in breakaway stages and those that are just a bit tougher. That way, he can still go far in the points classification.

There are few pure sprinters competing in the Vuelta a España, but Soudal Quick-Step has three, and they want to give each of them a chance in a Grand Tour. After Paul Magnier in the Giro and Tim Merlier in the Tour, it’s now the Italian Alberto Dainese’s turn in the Vuelta a España. Dainese will have Fabio Van Den Bossche as his lead-out man.

Dainese hasn't had a standout season, but he is someone who usually manages to perform at his best when it counts: for example, he won a stage in the Giro d'Italia in both 2022 and 2023—victories that weren't exactly expected.

Based on his natural talent, Jordi Meeus might just be the fastest rider in this Vuelta a España. The Belgian rider from Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, who will ride for Lidl-Trek next year, has already won three times this season, but he also generally manages to post strong results in the tougher races. For example, he has already won Samyn and the Brussels Cycling Classic in 2026.

Meeus is racing without his lead-out man, Danny van Poppel, but he usually manages to find his own way anyway. However, his team emphasizes that the Belgian will also have to fulfill his role for the team—which includes Primoz Roglic—so he likely won’t have immediate green jersey ambitions right from the start.

Movistar appeared to be starting the race without a sprinter, but ultimately decided to include Orluis Aular and Carlos Canal after all. The former, in particular, knows how to compete for podium finishes in Grand Tours: last year, in a similar edition of the Giro d’Italia—which featured many tough finishes—he finished in the top three three times and in the top ten on several occasions.

He wasn't able to replicate that performance in Italy this year, but in Spain—the home country of his sponsor, Movistar—Aular will have another chance. Given the course, this is a race that should definitely suit the sprinter, which is, of course, the reason he was selected.

Not many teams announce, when revealing their roster, that they’ll be focusing entirely on the sprint stages, but Bryan Coquard’s Cofidis team did just that. The French team is realistic enough to know that Le Coq is likely their best chance at success, although in the case of this experienced sprinter/puncher, that’s relative.

Coquard, now 34, has been unable to post top results for quite some time. Last year, the Breton also rode the Vuelta, where he finished in the top ten only in the first stage. Since then, he has won just once—in Greece, no less. “But now he’s in top form,” they assure us at Cofidis.

With Kaden Groves, we have a two-time winner of the Vuelta points classification (2023 and 2024) on the starting line. However, the Australian, who is riding for Alpecin-Premier Tech, remains a bit of a question mark based on his results so far in 2026. An injury derailed his spring season, and a crash on Stage 1 threw his Giro plans into disarray.

Groves did race in the ADAC Cyclassics in Hamburg last Sunday, but he didn’t finish in the leading group and came in 100th. Based on his quality and potential, he’s a formidable contender for the green jersey, but Groves may also need some time to find his footing in the race after all the setbacks he’s already faced in 2026.

If Tadej Pogacar had raced, say, ten years ago, you could have already marked him down in pencil as the winner of the green jersey. His cumulative daily results—especially in the tougher stages—are impressive, and that would have always earned him the points jersey, just like Alejandro Valverde, but in 2026, things are different.

Pogacar—partly with an eye toward the World Championships—won’t want to go all out for the green jersey and won’t get involved in the sprints, while his UAE team may also let the breakaway riders get away for a few days. Still, for all intents and purposes, you can assume he’ll finish in the top five of the points classification, and the jersey itself won’t be far off either...

Visma | Lease a Bike is starting this Vuelta a España with an impressive lead-out, but Matthew Brennan still seems to be the man for the flatter stages. The Brit is making his Grand Tour debut, but he’ll be disappointed if he has to head home without a stage win. His most recent results—two stage wins in Burgos—confirm that.

Brennan just turned 21 two weeks ago, but he already has 19 professional victories to his credit. On days when Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte ride in front of him, he’ll want to give it his all to actually capitalize on that advantageous position.

We’ve already mentioned him, but Wout van Aert will also be competing. Two years ago, he seemed on his way to winning the points and mountains jerseys, but a literal fall on his knees forced him to withdraw. In 2026, after missing the Tour de France, the motivated Belgian is back in the Vuelta a España, aiming for stage wins.

If Van Aert manages to position himself a few times and also goes for the intermediate sprints through breakaways, he’ll definitely be in contention for the green jersey. The fact that he might occasionally lead out for Brennan doesn’t have to be a disadvantage.

Remember the 2023 Tour of Britain with Olav Kooij, or even the 2022 Tour de France, in which Christophe Laporte, acting as Van Aert’s lead-out man, also strategically picked up his own points and ultimately finished fourth in the general classification. In fact, that was part of the strategy at the time to outmaneuver the competition.

Lidl-Trek doesn’t have the “luxury problem” that Visma | Lease a Bike faces. Or maybe it does, because with Mads Pedersen on the team, you really don’t need any other fast riders. The green jersey winner at the Tour de France is also taking on the Vuelta a España, where he’ll have the chance to defend the green jersey he won last year.

After the Tour, Pedersen said he had fulfilled his dreams of winning the points classification, but in the meantime, he also indicated that he hopes to win at least three stages in the Vuelta a España. If he manages to do that, he’ll automatically become the top favorite for the green jersey. And at Lidl—which, according to its own slogan, is the greenest and therefore most sustainable supermarket—they won’t turn that down without a second thought. With the stage starting at a Carrefour in Granada on Day 21, that might be a nice source of motivation.