Bold Claim: Vingegaard’s Tour de France wins only happened because of Pogacar’s setbacks

Vingegaard has ridden the Tour de France four times in his career. He finished second in his debut in 2021 before claiming victory in 2022 and 2023. His 2023 win was particularly dominant, with more than seven (!) minutes ahead of Pogacar, who had a less-than-ideal preparation after fracturing his wrist in Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

In 2024, the roles were reversed, with Pogacar crushing the competition. This time, it was Vingegaard who faced a limited preparation following a grueling crash in the Tour of the Basque Country. Despite this, he still managed to finish second in the overall standings and won a stage. However, De Cauwer believes that unless the top riders in the peloton encounter significant setbacks in the coming years, Vingegaard’s Tour wins may end there.

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"As long as Pogacar maintains this level, the difference will stay significant," De Cauwer said when asked whether Remco Evenepoel could still dream of winning the Tour. "But I wouldn’t dare say that Remco will never win the Tour. In terms of talent, I certainly don’t rank Vingegaard higher than Evenepoel. Frankly, Vingegaard should never have won a Tour, considering Pogacar’s superior talent."

According to De Cauwer, this is not meant as a slight against the Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike but rather as a testament to Pogacar’s dominance. When questioned about doping, the journalist dismissed the notion. "According to his former coach, Iñigo San Millán, it comes down to Pogacar’s hyper-efficient metabolism. Am I suspicious? I give him the benefit of the doubt. I discussed it with Tom Dumoulin recently. Nutrition has completely transformed cycling."

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Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike likely disagree with De Cauwer's comments. The 28-year-old team leader won the 2022 Tour thanks to brilliant teamwork with Primoz Roglic, cracking Pogacar. In 2023, Vingegaard repeatedly dropped him in solo efforts. During those editions, he was undoubtedly the strongest, and on Danish television, Vingegaard stated that he expects the strongest rider to win the Tour in the coming years as well.

When asked about the Tour de France route, Vingegaard had a telling response: “You can’t say if a course favors me or Pogacar more. It might suit you well, but everything depends on physical condition. In 2024, Pogacar didn’t have any weak moments, so the most important thing is to show up in top form. The overall victory won’t depend on the route but on fitness.”

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In 2025, Pogacar and Vingegaard are expected to face off in the Tour once again, hopefully both in peak condition. Vingegaard has recovered from his injuries sustained in the Basque Country, and Pogacar had a smooth winter following his dominant 2024. Evenepoel, however, has already experienced a setback due to a training crash. The Soudal-Quick Step rider is currently unable to train on his bike but has stated that he doesn’t anticipate any issues with his Tour preparation.