Can Pogacar beat Van der Poel? ‘He will never be the favourite for Roubaix for me,’ says Gilbert

The Belgian won five Monuments during his career and knows better than anyone what it takes to deliver on every kind of terrain. Yet even he admits that Pogačar is, in many ways, even more all-round. The Slovenian world champion has already stood on the podium in every Monument and will again start many of this spring’s biggest races as the man to beat. Still, Gilbert believes Paris-Roubaix remains a very different problem.

Pogačar, of course, finished second on his Roubaix debut straight away. “But I want to see it again when we get an edition with really bad weather in Roubaix,” Gilbert told Het Nieuwsblad. “Last year was a fast edition in good conditions. Then you can get away with a bit more. But if it’s pouring with rain at the start in Compiègne in a few weeks, Mauro Gianetti will think twice as well.”

“He won’t say Pogačar can’t start, but his message will be more nuanced: ‘Tadej, we’re here for you. We believe in you. But don’t forget: we mainly count on you in July.’ And even if your name is Pogačar, somewhere that still sits in your head. That’s why he will never be the favourite for Roubaix for me. If Van der Poel enters a corner and it’s ‘crash or win’, he will always be able to take more risk.”

For Wout van Aert, the presence of both Pogačar and Van der Poel means his chances of finally winning another Monument have taken a clear hit. Van Aert won Milan–San Remo in 2020, but since then he has repeatedly come up short — often after an interrupted build-up. This season, too, he has had to deal with setbacks after a crash during the cyclo-cross winter.

“It can’t be anything other than mentally heavy,” Gilbert said. “It’s the accumulation that worries me most. It was always difficult for him to beat Van der Poel after a six-hour race. With his knee problems, his sprint isn’t as good as it used to be either. And now this comes on top of it… Even if it costs him only half a percent, against riders like Pogačar and Van der Poel, that’s too much.”

Gilbert also finds it almost strange that Van Aert hasn’t won more in one-day racing. “Van Aert doesn’t have the Classics palmarès he should have. Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix — with his climbing ability even Liège–Bastogne–Liège: he should have won all of them at least once. Can he still do it? Yes. He’s 31. That’s not too old. But does his history make it harder every year? Also yes, I’m afraid.”

And what about Soudal Quick-Step? After the departure of Remco Evenepoel, the team wants to refocus on the Classics. Gilbert likes what he is hearing from his former team, but he is not expecting an instant return to dominance. “With Remco in the team, the Classics spirit completely disappeared. It’s nice they want to pick that up again now, but I fear it will take time. They may not be starting completely from zero, but it’s not far off.”

Quick-Step have brought in two Monument winners in Dylan van Baarle and Jasper Stuyven, and although neither is young anymore, Gilbert sees that as an advantage. “Their older age might actually be good. Van Baarle brings knowledge from Visma. Stuyven will pass his experience on to the young guys. And they know what it means to ride the Flemish Classics — that’s exactly what Quick-Step needs again.”