Eurosport analyst uses data to point to potentially far-reaching consequences after Tadej Pogačar's Vuelta crash

It will remain the defining story of the 2026 Vuelta a España: Tadej Pogacar’s crash on Day 8. The clear favorite fell because of a rock, bringing his winning streak to an abrupt end. What does this crash mean for the future? In the Kop Over Kop podcast, Eurosport analyst Bobbie Traksel analyzes the potentially far-reaching consequences for the Slovenian.

On Saturday, during Stage 8, there were already crashes in the neutral zone, and that turned out to be a sign of things to come. With 33 kilometers to go, Pogačar was the first to crash because of a rock on the road. The Slovenian, who was wearing the red jersey at the time, was forced to withdraw. It was his first-ever withdrawal from a stage race.

The diagnosis was grim: Pogacar broke his collarbone, suffered a vertebral fracture, and also sustained a concussion. Only time will tell exactly how the Slovenian’s recovery will proceed. The fact is, however, that the world champion will have his work cut out for him to recover.

Traksel has some interesting statistics on that recovery. “I looked at the data on ProCyclingStats. It shows that riders who have broken their collarbone experience an average 4 percent loss in performance. Also: riders who have suffered a concussion experience an average loss of 17 percent of their performance level.”

"Riders with a vertebral fracture experience a 23 percent loss in performance," the Dutchman continues. "The fact is that after that crash, they score 23 percent fewer points. That’s obviously incredibly bizarre and a huge drop." And so it may be that, following this crash, we’ll see a less dominant Pogacar.

Traksel also notes: “The fact that Pogacar has yet to experience such a serious crash, while all the others have already been through one, might go a little way toward explaining why he was so incredibly good. But it might also say something about the medium or long term—how Pogacar will ride in the coming years.'

The Dutchman isn't too worried about his collarbone. “But the vertebra and the concussion... it depends on how bad it is. How will he fare? We don’t know. One of his strengths is that he recovers quickly, so we can certainly remain hopeful,” the commentator adds.

Only time will tell what the consequences of this crash will be. “It really depends on how the injury will affect Pogacar’s performance. Was this the day Pogacar’s form began to decline? That could very well be the case. We’re all just speculating right now—it’s just a possibility, so there’s no truth to it yet. But it’s possible that in a few years, people will be talking about this day.”

For now, it seems we won’t be seeing Pogacar race in 2026. “I don’t recommend that to him anymore, either.” According to Traksel, the World Championships aren’t a good idea either. “He wasn’t at 100 percent, but he still managed to win. He would have needed to gain another 10 percent over the coming weeks to become world champion. Why would he try it at 75 percent? I think it’s still possible once he’s fully recovered. He’s not going to take that risk.”