Favorites points classification Giro d’Italia 2025 | Visma showdown, eager youngsters and a daring Dane

The leader’s jersey always draws the most attention in any Grand Tour, and in the Giro d’Italia that’s the iconic pink. But ask a sprinter about the Giro and he’ll think of just one color: purple. What green represents in the Tour de France, purple means in Italy. So who will battle it out for three weeks in May for points in the sprint classification, and who do we see realistically stepping onto the podium in Rome? With two-time defending champion Jonathan Milan (Lidl Trek) not on the start line, IDLProCycling.com breaks down the top contenders.

Check out other articles about the Giro d'Italia from IDLProCycling.com:

2024 - Jonathan Milan
2023 - Jonathan Milan
2022 - Arnaud Démare
2021 - Peter Sagan
2020 - Arnaud Démare
2019 - Pascal Ackermann
2018 - Elia Viviani
2017 - Fernando Gaviria
2016 - Giacomo Nizzolo
2015 - Giacomo Nizzolo

Read more below the photo.

The Giro d’Italia is a brutal race, but the fact that the points classification is dominated by sprinters comes down to the traditional points system. Those who consistently perform in the pure sprint stages are usually the ones battling for purple. Still, with an unusually high number of transitional stages on this year’s route, it’s worth looking at what punchy sprinters who can handle a climb or two might take from those rolling days.

Flat rides - one star or two stars (stages 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 14, 18 and 21)
Finish: 50, 35, 25, 18, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Hilly stages - three stars (stage 1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 17)
Finish: 25, 18, 12, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Mountain stages - four or five stars (stages 7, 15, 16, 19 and 20)
Finish: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Time trials (stages 2 and 10)
Finish: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Intermediate sprints (all stages except time trials)
First of the day: 12, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

To compile this list, the editors of IDLProCycling.com, both current and former, were asked to submit their top ten in response to the question: "Who is most likely to win the points classification at the Giro d’Italia?" Each top ten was scored based on ranking with 12 points for first place, 10 for second, followed by 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point.

For every rider, the total score was converted into a percentage of the maximum number of points possible. These percentages are listed next to each rider to give a better idea of the favorites according to IDLProCycling.com.

Corbin Strong, 25 years old, lines up for his third Grand Tour and his first ever Giro d’Italia. The compact sprinter will be the designated finisher for his team as the race kicks off in Albania. He took on the same role during last year’s Vuelta a España, where he impressed with two third places and five top 10 finishes in total. He stepped off the bike after stage 17, where he placed fifth, but closed out his season with strong results including a victory at the Giro del Veneto.

This year his campaign has been slower to get going. The New Zealander is still chasing his first win of the season, with fourth place at the Surf Coast Classic as his best result so far. He played a key role in races like Milan Sanremo and the Brabantse Pijl, finishing 12th and 14th. While those results may not stand out, his endurance in tough terrain makes him a real threat for the ciclamino jersey. On days when the peloton thins out over rolling terrain, Strong is one of the riders who can strike.

The only non-sprinter on this list also happens to be the favorite for the pink jersey. That makes sense, since Primoz Roglic has always finished in the top 10 of the points classification in every Grand Tour he’s won. Twice — in 2019 and 2020 — he even claimed the green jersey in the Vuelta. His strength lies in his versatility. He will be up there with the best in the high mountains but can also fight for stage wins on hilly days with punchy finishes.

On top of that, Red Bull BORA hansgrohe is not bringing a pure sprinter to the Giro. Everything revolves around Rogla. The four-time Vuelta winner is fully focused on taking his second Giro title, and a purple bonus would be a great souvenir to take home. If he finds his rhythm early, he could be scoring points in over half the stages. You never know.

Matteo Moschetti has been floating around the outsider lists for sprint stages for a few years now. The Italian made his Giro debut back in 2019, but since joining Q36.5 he has become one of the team’s key riders. And this year, he has shown massive progress. After going winless in 2024, the 28-year-old sprinter already has four victories to his name this season — and they were not just any stages.

No fewer than three times, the fast-finishing Italian left Dylan Groenewegen trailing in second place. He proved to be the Dutch champion’s main rival in both the AlUla Tour and the Hellas Tour. At the Grand Prix Criquielion, he showed he could also survive trickier finales. He’s not Wout van Aert or Mads Pedersen, but with the speed he has, Moschetti is definitely one to watch — especially with limited sprint opportunities on offer.

The most experienced sprinter on this list is without a doubt Sam Bennett. The Irishman has nine Grand Tours under his belt and has won stages in five of them. His last Grand Tour victory came back in 2022. Last year, Bennett set his sights on wins in the Tour de France but had to settle for a single fourth place. His spring form this year, however, has been impressive.

He took two out of three stages in the Tour de la Provence and doubled up again in the Région Pays de la Loire Tour. In both races he also showed that he can handle a climb when needed. On top of that, he beat Mads Pedersen twice — a man he’ll meet again on Italian roads. Is this the comeback season for Bennett? He’s got the team to support him, with riders like Stan Dewulf, Dries De Bondt and Tord Gudmestad at his side.

Perhaps a surprising name this high on the list, but anyone who followed the spring season will have heard Milan Fretin’s name come up more than once and always for the right reasons. The Belgian rider from Cofidis made clear progress over the winter and wasted no time showing it. In the Clásica de Almería he made an early statement, and just a week later he took a stage win at the Volta ao Algarve. Who did he beat there? Let’s name a few: Jordi Meeus, Arnaud De Lie, Wout van Aert, Filippo Ganna, Biniam Girmay. Not exactly minor competition.

In Portugal, he proved he’s got serious power, even when the road kicks up a little. He followed that up with a string of strong results in the Flemish spring, including fourth in Scheldeprijs and Nokere Koerse. He capped it all off with a win in the Ronde van Limburg. The form is clearly there, and his Grand Tour debut could become even more memorable if he snags a stage win or maybe even takes purple all the way to Rome.

Three men in a shared third place. It shows how exciting the battle for the points jersey is going to be! The Sky is the Limit, that much is certain about Paul Magnier. The Frenchman, who only turned 21 earlier this year, already has six pro victories despite his still early career. This year he got off to an excellent start, winning the first stage of the Star of Besseges. After that, no new victories followed, but he constantly let his fast legs do the talking.

Second in the Figueira Classic, second in the Omloop het Nieuwsblad, second in Le Samyn.... He was always there. In preparation for the Giro, many men took to the heights, but not Magnier. He stayed home: 'Also because mental recovery is very important. And I think that was definitely the right choice. I feel good and I'm incredibly looking forward to what a big tour entails and what I can get done there.' With his sheer class but also his youthful drudgery, the Frenchman is a very dangerous customer, even in the tricky stages.

If we ranked the contenders for the ciclamino jersey purely on raw speed, Olav Kooij would probably be at the very top. The 23-year-old Dutchman has long proven himself as one of the fastest finishers in the current sprint field, which makes him a major threat in the Giro d’Italia points race. A crash at Gent Wevelgem disrupted his build-up slightly, but he will be at the start in Albania.

Kooij can also handle a climb or two, so why isn’t he ranked higher? The strength of his team might actually be the catch. With Wout van Aert also aiming for the points jersey, Visma | Lease a Bike has another serious contender one who climbs better than his younger teammate. On flat stages, Kooij will likely get full team support, but on hillier days, the cards might be played for Van Aert. That split in leadership could end up working against Kooij’s chances in the overall points classification.

Kaden Groves has quietly been one of the most underrated sprinters in the peloton for years. At Alpecin Deceuninck he still often rides in the shadow of Jasper Philipsen, but his results speak volumes. The 26-year-old Australian has already taken seven stage wins at the Vuelta and one at the Giro. In Spain, he even claimed the points jersey twice, thanks not only to his speed but also to his impressive climbing ability.

Who could forget last year’s stage to Villablino at the Vuelta, where he survived a 23-kilometre climb with the summit just 17 kilometres from the finish, then outsprinted Wout van Aert for the win? His fifth place at Milan Sanremo marked a new career high. It was his debut at La Primavera, but it proved again that long, grueling races are no problem for Groves. With the team expected to fully rally around him, he is one of the strongest contenders for the ciclamino jersey.

The names on this list are tightly packed together, with most contenders closely matched. But when it came to picking a top favorite for the ciclamino jersey, the editors at IDLProCycling.com were almost unanimous. Mads Pedersen is the man to beat. And looking at his spring campaign, it is easy to see why. While he may have come up just short in pure drag races against sprinters like Tim Merlier and Sam Bennett, he still took home the points jersey in both the Tour de la Provence and Paris Nice.

Pedersen’s climbing legs are stronger than ever. He proved that with a tenth-place finish on the queen stage of Paris Nice and was one of the most active riders in the final stage into Nice. In the classics he showed his ability to produce massive power after a tough day out just look at his sprint in the Tour of Flanders, where he crushed both Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. In flat sprints he is always in the mix, but it’s in the harder stages where he becomes the most dangerous rider. Simply put, there’s no getting around Pedersen in this Giro.