If Pogačar doesn't make the World Championships, this analyst doesn't see Van Aert or Van der Poel winning

The decision has yet to be made, but if logic prevails, we won’t see Tadej Pogačar in action at September's 2026 World Cycling Championships in Canada. The Slovenian rider from UAE Emirates-XRG withdrew from the Vuelta a España with fractures, so the path to the rainbow jersey appears to be open for others. But former rider and analyst Roxane Knetemann is throwing cold water on some of the hopes of the big favourites.

If Pogačar doesn’t compete in the World Championships, we will see a different world champion in Montréal for the first time in three years. Pogačar was dominant in the last two editions in Switzerland and Rwanda, and a one-sided race was already expected in Canada as well. Now that his Vuelta crash seems to be preventing him from competing, others can dream.

"The World Championships will be a much less predictable race," says cycling journalist Marijn Abbenhuijs on the podcast In Het Wiel. It may even have been the reason for Mads Pedersen's early withdrawal from the Vuelta. The Dane had been struggling with illness, and his improved chances at the World Championships are said to have played a role in his decision to withdraw after all.

Knetemann understands the decision to pull out of the Vuelta while not being 100 percent fit, but she also says about Pedersen: "If the World Championships become less predictable, I’d be happy to name Pedersen. But to be completely honest: the World Championships are really, really tough. I haven’t looked into them deeply enough yet, and I’d never write Pedersen off, but I think it’s too difficult for him.”

Knetemann extends that view to other classics specialists who think they’ll be able to make their mark at the World Championships in Montreal. Now that the race might unfold differently without Pogačar—and the Canadian climbs might be tackled in a more explosive manner rather than at a single blistering pace—riders like Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel are also coming into the picture.

"With Pogacar out, riders like Pedersen, Van Aert, and Van der Poel immediately have a better chance, but that doesn't mean it's suddenly become their race," said Abbenhuijs, who is thinking more of true climbers like Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro. Knetemann chimed in: “If they start to falter, guys…”

According to the analysts, a race like the Tour of Flanders could be a good example—a race with a lot of elevation gain but no climbs that are too long. Yet Pogačar and Evenepoel finished 1st and 3rd there. “These are different elevation gains,” Knetemann adds. “Although they have every right to go for it.”