Early Algarve scare set the tone for Jonas Vingegaard’s 2025: solid… but a step behind UAE and Pogacar

For Jonas Vingegaard, another turbulent year is in the books. No Tour de France win for Visma | Lease a Bike’s Danish leader, but he did clinch overall victory at the Vuelta a España. Ups and downs defined the climber’s campaign — and the tone was set very early, under a watery February sun in Portugal.

2024 had been a year to forget for Vingegaard. His crash at Itzulia Basque Country derailed his Tour build-up; starting in July already felt like a minor miracle, and second place in Paris almost counted as a win. Almost, but not entirely, of course. All that physical and mental strain meant his final race came as early as August at the Tour de Pologne.

He gave himself time to rest, then reset fully for the new season. New year, new energy, and a new fire — and a crystal-clear target: to dethrone Tadej Pogacar in July. After a long winter, Vingegaard made his return in Portugal. The Volta ao Algarve was a fine place to start, and as the top favourite he was expected to show his class immediately.

Stage 1 turned out to be a disaster, partly due to the organisers. No winner was declared after almost the entire peloton took the wrong turn and ended up on the wrong side of the barriers in the final kilometre. So stage 2 would finally deliver our first leader — and it was the queen stage to Alto da Foia, with most eyes fixed on Visma’s main man himself.

The expectations made sense: Vingegaard had a stacked line-up around him. Wout van Aert was there, as were Wilco Kelderman, Loe van Belle, Ben Tulett, Tiesj Benoot and Sepp Kuss — a formation fit for the Tour de France. The main rivals: Vuelta winner Primoz Roglic (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). But could they really trouble a two-time Tour winner?

The answer came quickly. On the tough final climb, a small group of outsiders slipped away, including Jan Christen. The Swiss from UAE then dropped his companions and carved out a gap — surely Visma would respond? Not this time. Almeida outfoxed Vingegaard and Roglic by jumping across to his teammate. Christen took the win, while Almeida nicked ten seconds from Vingegaard and thirteen from Roglic.

Vingegaard finished sixth on the day, also beaten on the line by UAE talent António Morgado. With three riders in the top five, UAE had a dream situation for the rest of the race. Relief only came for Visma on the final-day time trial. Vingegaard won the stage ahead of Van Aert; Almeida placed sixth and ceded the overall to his Danish rival.

Fast-forward to late season and the pattern repeated at the Vuelta a España: Vingegaard as top favourite, Almeida the prime challenger. It was a close fight for quite a while, but the Dane ultimately prevailed. Still, the same uneasy question lingered as in Portugal: shouldn’t Vingegaard have won by more? Almeida was closer to Vingegaard than Vingegaard was to Pogacar.

Visma’s line in the Algarve was that it was still early in the year, true, but their arch-rival was operating on another level that very same week. Pogacar bagged two stages at the UAE Tour and won the race by more than a minute. The difficulties for Vingegaard continued in the months after: at Paris–Nice, he was again beaten uphill by Almeida.

At the Critérium du Dauphiné later that year, things started brightly, with an impressive ride from the Dane on the nasty opening day, giving fans hope for an upcoming battle. But that same hope fizzled at the first summit finish — and the next. Pogacar won the Dauphiné by a minute, and those dynamics rolled straight into the Tour de France.

So, in February, the template for the season — for both Visma | Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard — had already been sketched: a solid year, yet… UAE Team Emirates-XRG spooked Vingegaard in Portugal with what was essentially a B-team, while the big bad wolf had been huffing and puffing and blowing all the rivals away. When it really mattered, the Killer Bees and their leader were just half a step behind.