Evenepoel and Pogacar stick to the van der Poel scenario, while Del Toro and others can dream thanks to World Championship statistics

Seven riders have won the World Championships in the last ten years. Peter Sagan took the rainbow jersey in 2015, 2016, and 2017, and Julian Alaphilippe was the best in both 2020 and 2021. In the meantime, Alejandro Valverde (2018) and Mads Pedersen (2019) won the world title, and after Alaphilippe's dominance, Evenepoel (2022), Van der Poel (2023), and Pogacar (2024) became champions.

They are all fantastic names, and with a grueling course for the World Championships in Rwanda, we can be sure that another absolute star will be on the top step of the podium on Sunday. The question is: who? Because what is being portrayed in the media as a duel between Pogacar and Evenepoel may turn out to be more than that.

Apart from the fact that we are discussing big stars of cycling, such as Sagan and Pogacar, there is another common denominator in the last ten world titles: winning. In the run-up to the previous World Championships, the eventual world champion almost always won a race just before the big event. Sagan won a Vuelta stage in 2015, two stages in the Eneco Tour in 2016, and the GP Québec in 2017.

Valverde showed his World Championship form in 2018 by finishing fifth in the overall classification of the Vuelta, winning the points classification and two stages. In 2019, a week before the World Championships in the cold and wet Harrogate, Pedersen was still the best in the Grand Prix d'Isbergues, with an impressive solo performance.

Alaphilippe? He prepared for the World Championships in 2020, the year of the coronavirus, by winning a stage in the Tour de France. However, in 2021, the rule of winning was broken for the first time. The Frenchman failed to win a stage in the Tour of Britain and went into the World Championships without a victory in his pocket. After a final training block, he eventually proved to be the best in Flanders.

Van der Poel made it even more spectacular in 2023. He rode an anonymous Tour de France, but two weeks later in Glasgow, he was the best. A year earlier, Evenepoel had won the Vuelta a España in preparation for his World Championship title in Australia, and Pogacar rode to victory in Montreal last year before clinching the world title in Zurich.

Now that Evenepoel and Pogacar have not won on the way to the World Championships, the two top favorites will stick to the route that Alaphilippe and van der Poel took on their way to their World Championship titles. Based on these statistics, the men who have won in recent weeks on their way to Rwanda can dream of a stunt. Those who have proven to have good legs can benefit from this.

So who are the men who triumphed in recent weeks? We're not talking about Vuelta podium finisher Tom Pidcock or fourth-place finisher in the Tour of Spain Jai Hindley. Jay Vine (Australia), Juan Ayuso (Spain), Marc Soler (Spain), and Egan Bernal (Colombia) all won a stage in the Vuelta. Vine and Ayuso even won twice, with Vine also taking the mountain jersey.

Other winners with World Championship plans? Mattias Skjelmose (Denmark) scored an impressive victory in stage 3 of the Tour of Luxembourg. If we broaden the timeline, we can also note Paul Seixas' (France) overall victory in the Tour de l'Avenir. However, in this list, there is, of course, one who really won a lot: Isaac Del Toro. The Mexican won four Italian races in September alone.

Bring it on.