2026 Tour de France stage 10 preview | Can Vingegaard repeat his Le Lioran victory over Pogacar?

After a well-earned rest day in the Cantal, the peloton resumes the Tour de France on Tuesday with stage 10. It is an immediate and demanding test, featuring no fewer than 3,800 metres of elevation gain across 166 kilometres through the Massif Central. IDL Pro Cycling looks ahead to another punishing day of racing in France — on Bastille Day, no less.

The tenth stage of the Tour de France starts in Aurillac, where temperatures are once again expected to approach 35 degrees Celsius. There are no categorised climbs during the opening phase, but the roads in the Cantal are rarely flat.

One interesting feature is that the intermediate sprint comes relatively early in the stage. After barely 25 kilometres, points will already be available in Lacapelle-del-Fraisse, midway through the comparatively flat opening 60 kilometres.

After 62.7 kilometres, the second part of the stage begins with the Côte de Pailherols, the first categorised climb of the day. It measures 3 kilometres at an average gradient of 7.2 per cent, although there is no immediate descent after the summit. Instead, the riders remain on a plateau for approximately 30 kilometres.

Should a breakaway not have formed by this point, this is the section where it could finally happen. After a short descent, two more climbs follow in quick succession: the Col de la Griffoul, measuring 5.9 kilometres at 6.7 per cent, and the Col de Prat de Bouc, which is 3.1 kilometres long at 6.5 per cent.

There will be virtually no flat roads from that point onwards. The route continues over the Col de Murat, 5.2 kilometres at 5.3 per cent, before heading towards the hardest climb of the day: the Puy Mary, which measures 7.8 kilometres at an average of 6 per cent. Its summit sits at almost 1,600 metres above sea level, after which a 20-kilometre descent takes the riders towards the steepest climb of the stage.

The Col du Pertus, located 20 kilometres from the finish, is 4.4 kilometres long at an average gradient of 8.5 per cent. The final climb is the category-three Col de Font de Cère. This 3.1-kilometre ascent averages 5.8 per cent and reaches its summit just three kilometres from the finish. The run towards the uphill final 500 metres, which rise at 7.4 per cent, is also fairly technical.

The Tour has finished in Le Lioran on two previous occasions. Greg Van Avermaet won there following a phenomenal attack in 2016, while the race produced a thrilling duel between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar in 2024. Pogacar appeared to be riding alone towards the finish, but Vingegaard caught him and then beat him in the sprint.

Times
Start: 1:10 p.m. CET
Finish: 5:25 p.m. CET

Tuesday will once again be hot, although the most extreme temperatures should ease as the stage progresses. It is expected to be around 33 degrees Celsius at the start, while the temperature at the finish should sit just below 30 degrees.

Considering how aggressively this Tour de France has been raced so far, the most logical scenario may be for the general classification contenders to fight for the stage victory. That naturally brings us to Tadej Pogacar, the Tour’s dominant force. The Slovenian has already won two stages and may be eager to add a third on Tuesday.

We can draw some inspiration from what happened in Le Lioran two years ago, when Jonas Vingegaard defeated Pogacar in relatively surprising fashion and appeared to bring the Tour back to life. The emphasis is on appeared, because Pogacar eventually settled the contest with his Danish Visma | Lease a Bike rival later in the race.

In the group right behind them, Isaac del Toro of UAE Emirates-XRG, Paul Seixas of Decathlon CMA CGM, Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, Lenny Martinez of Bahrain Victorious, Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl-Trek have been closely matched. At the same time, that is precisely the problem facing them.

Apart from Del Toro, who is Pogacar’s teammate, it is extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which one of those riders beats the Slovenian to the stage victory.

That may mean more attention should be paid to riders who need to attack from distance, such as Richard Carapaz of EF Education-EasyPost. Tobias Halland Johannessen of Uno-X and Tom Pidcock of Pinarello-Q36.5 already tried that approach on Sunday, although the peloton did not allow them much freedom.

Other riders who could attempt a long-range move include Lennert Van Eetvelt of Lotto-Intermarché, Ben O’Connor of Jayco AlUla, Thymen Arensman of Netcompany INEOS and Jordan Jegat of TotalEnergies. UAE Emirates-XRG, however, will be reluctant to allow Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgenson or Davide Piganzoli of Visma | Lease a Bike to ride into a dangerous breakaway.

Top Favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Isaac del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM), and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Juan Ayuso, Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5), Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché), Thymen Arensman (Netcompany INEOS), and Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies)