Favorites for Stage 7 of Paris-Nice 2025 | Shortened Queen Stage, but Cold and Snow Could turn It into a battle of Attrition

The route has changed significantly from the original plan. The Col de la Colmiane and Côte de Belvédère have been removed, meaning fewer climbs in the middle section. In total, the stage is now nearly 40 kilometers shorter: from the planned 148 kilometers, only 109 remain. Conditions around the Col de la Colmiane are expected to be so severe that descending is considered too risky.

This leaves just two categorized climbs. The Côte d'Aspremont appears early, after just 19.6 kilometers from the start. This climb is 9.3 kilometers long at an average gradient of 4.8%, making it a good opportunity to warm up the legs or launch an early breakaway. But the main focus is on the finish in Auron. Officially, this final climb is 7.3 kilometers at 7.2%, though the road has already been gradually ascending before the official climb begins. The toughest section is in the middle, where the steepest kilometer averages over 9%.

Climbs
Côte d'Aspremont (9.3km at 4.8%)
Auron (7.3km at 7.2%)

Times
Start: 11:15 AM (local time) | 05:15 AM (EST)
Finish: 3:05 PM (local time) | 09:05 AM (EST)

It’s going to be a tough, incredibly tough day for the riders. The stage has already been shortened due to conditions, but the summit finish in Auron could be chaotic. Don’t be surprised if you see the riders struggling through the snow—temperatures are expected to reach a maximum of just 1°C, with a 95% chance of precipitation, making snowfall highly likely.

First things first: no Jonas Vingegaard. With this kind of finish, he would have been the undisputed favorite, but now his teammate Matteo Jorgenson will have to handle it on his own. The strong American faces stiff competition, particularly from João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), who already defeated him once—on Wednesday’s other wintery stage, the Portuguese rider took the win. Almeida can also count on the support of a strong Brandon McNulty. Both UAE riders lost valuable time in Friday’s stage, meaning they will have to go on the offensive on Saturday if they want to stay in contention for the yellow jersey.

However, the most impressive climber so far might just be Lenny Martinez. The young Frenchman from Bahrain Victorious was the only one who dared to follow Vingegaard and even took a stage win the next day. He’ll be brimming with confidence, though he missed out in Friday’s crosswind battle, effectively ending his chances in the overall classification. Among the young riders, though, there’s plenty of competition. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) remain high in the GC standings and will be keen to hold their positions.

INEOS Grenadiers has embraced an attacking strategy, and with Tobias Foss and Thymen Arensman, they could once again challenge for the stage win. Meanwhile, XDS Astana has done what the British team couldn’t—compete for victory with two riders. Harald Tejada and Clément Champoussin came very close on Thursday. At Movistar, the main hope is Pablo Castrillo, while Soudal Quick-Step will rely on Ilan Van Wilder to lead their charge.

Top favorite: Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)
Outsiders:João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Harald Tejada (XDS Astana), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
Long shots: Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Clément Champoussin (XDS Astana), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar), Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step), Tobias Foss, Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers)