Favorites points classification Vuelta a Espana 2025 | Green jersey in this Vuelta = (no) sure thing

The ASO has radically changed the points system since 2021, and it is now almost identical to that of the Tour de France. Riders can earn points for the points classification both at the finish and in intermediate sprints. As far as the intermediate sprints are concerned, only the first five riders can earn points in the Vuelta. In the Tour, for example, this is the first ten.

While the maximum number of points that can be earned in intermediate sprints in each stage is the same (20), this does not apply at the finish. The number of points at the finish depends on the difficulty of the stage. The Vuelta organizers distinguish between four types of stages: flat, hilly, mountain, and time trial. The most points can be earned in flat stages, and the fewest in mountain stages and time trials. The team time trial in Barcelona does not award any points.

Points flat stages - group 1: stages 1 and 21
50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2

Points hilly stages - group 2 and 3: stages 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 and 19
30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2

Points mountain stages - group 4 and 5: stages 7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17 and 20
20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1

Points time trial - group 6: stage 18
20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1

Intermediate sprints (in every stage except time trials)
20, 17, 15, 13, and 10

Also check out the other favorites by IDLProCycling.com
- Preview La Vuelta a España 2025
- General classification favourites
- Mountain classification favourites (coming soon)
- Favorites youth classification (coming soon)
- Fantasy league tips for La Vuelta a España 2025 (coming soon)

2024 Kaden Groves
2023 Kaden Groves
2022 Mads Pedersen
2021 Fabio Jakobsen
2020 Primoz Roglic
2019 Primoz Roglic
2018 Alejandro Valverde
2017 Chris Froome
2016 Fabio Felline
2015 Alejandro Valverde

This list has been compiled based on the opinions of current and former editors of In de Leiderstrui, who submitted their top ten contenders based on the provisional start list. If, for example, Jasper Philipsen ends up starting after all, he will be added later.

The first on our list is Bryan Coquard from Cofidis. The Frenchman is known as a rider who always competes for the green jersey in the Tour de France, but his track record in the Vuelta a España is slightly less impressive. Coquard has competed in the Vuelta three times so far, but has never finished.

His team also has another sprinter in Stanislaw Aniolkowski, although we rate Coquard slightly higher for the points classification. However, it is difficult to predict his form, as he had to leave the Tour de France with a broken finger.

Number nine also comes from France, but is slightly less well-known. This is Thibaud Gruel, one of the stars that Groupama-FDJ has managed to develop in recent years. The wiry youngster from Tours is a true all-rounder, but also has a strong finishing sprint. These are qualities that can take you far in a Vuelta, where breakaway riders often finish high in the points classification.

This year, Gruel has achieved top ten places in races such as Provence, the Basque Country, Dunkirk, and recently, Poland, while also winning the prologue in Boucles de la Mayenne and a stage in the Route d'Occitanie. Don't be surprised if he also makes his mark in the Vuelta.

In terms of pure sprinters, this Vuelta a España is somewhat disappointing, but that in turn offers opportunities for those who are there. Casper van Uden of Picnic PostNL, for example, proved in this year's Giro d'Italia that he can outsmart anyone on a good day.

Last year, Max Poole finished third in the points classification for the Dutch team, but that was mainly due to his attacking racing style. Could Van Uden also get in the mix in Madrid with a possible 50 points?

At Movistar, they have had to change their tactics for the Vuelta after Enric Mas withdrew. The new approach will focus mainly on stage wins, for which the team has included some fast men in the pre-selection with Orluis Aular, Ivan Garcia Cortina, and Carlos Canal.

Aular already proved in the Giro that he can compete for the top spots for 21 days, finishing six times in the top ten. Two years ago, the strong climber and sprinter was also close in the Tour of Spain, on the day that Geoffrey Soupe surprised everyone by winning a Vuelta sprint.

In the Vuelta a España, GC contenders can usually go far in the battle for the green jersey, which, of course, has everything to do with the challenging course that the riders usually have to tackle. That means we are also including riders such as Joao Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG) in this list.

The Portuguese rider is considered one of the top favorites for the overall victory, after already winning the Tours of the Basque Country, Romandy, and Switzerland this year. In both the Basque Country and Switzerland, he also took the points classification, but that will certainly not be a specific goal for the strong climber.

Israel-Premier Tech has included two strong Brits in its selection for the Vuelta: Jake Stewart and Ethan Vernon. Both riders have already won at the WorldTour level this season – Stewart in the Dauphiné, Vernon in Catalonia – and have similar characteristics, which makes it challenging to pick one rider ahead of the other.

However, Vernon, who also races on the track, has only nine Grand Tour stages to his name, so we rate Stewart slightly higher. He proved once again in the Tour de France that he can still climb well in the third week, which also makes him a potentially dangerous contender for breakaways. This strategy helped him finish well in the 2022 Vuelta, where he only competed in seven stages but finished in the top twelve five times.

The big question for every primary race he participates in is: how will Tom Pidcock perform? The Brit has already expressed his ambitions for the upcoming Vuelta a España, but the multi-talented rider will also want to get involved in the battle for the stages. In that respect, the Vuelta is perhaps the race that suits him best, with many stages ending on a hill or mountain.

With his explosiveness, these are the stages that should suit Pidcock perfectly, although reality has taught us in the past that anything is possible with him.

In the most recent Vuelta races, there was always an ‘explosive time trialist’ who scored highly in the points classification. Last season, it was Mathias Vacek of Lidl-Trek, in 2023 Filippo Ganna, and in 2022 Fred Wright. Of those three, only Ganna will be back. If, as he was two years ago, he competes in sprints and transition stages, he will be a dangerous contender.

On Strava, the fast rider is already quite active again after his withdrawal from the Tour, but with Egan Bernal, INEOS has another spearhead to watch out for. If the number two from Milan-Sanremo has his legs with him for the Gran Salida in his home country of Italy, he will be someone to keep an eye on from day one.

Is Jonas Vingegaard a favorite for the green jersey? Yes, really, Jonas Vingegaard is a favorite for the green jersey. The Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike is simply the man to beat in this Vuelta a España, which automatically makes him a candidate for the green jersey in this race.

In the Tour de France, he proved that he has plenty of explosiveness, so we can also expect him to do well on the shorter stages. However, it will mainly depend on his hunger and that of his team to have a chance at the green jersey, which will never be a main goal.

Everyone will agree on the top favorite for the green jersey in this Vuelta: Mads Pedersen. The extremely strong Dane from Lidl-Trek can complete a nice statistic with his team in the Spanish race: if he wins the points classification, the German-American team will have taken all the points jerseys in the major tours this year.

Anyone who saw Pedersen riding in the spring, in the Giro, or more recently in the Tour of Denmark knows that he will do everything he can to secure the green jersey as quickly as possible and, preferably, a few stages. Just like he did in 2022, when he won three stages.