Favorites stage 14 Vuelta a Espana 2023 | Kuss ✅, Roglic ✅, Vingegaard ✅: what next?

On Friday, we started on Spanish soil and headed to France; on Saturday, it's the other way around. The thirteenth stage of the Vuelta starts in Sauveterre-de-Béarn. The sprinters are at least better off with this starting location; whereas they had to shoot straight uphill the day before, Saturday offers a flat approach of around fifty kilometers.

After completing that, we start the first climb of the day: the Col Hourcere, immediately a climb of the hors categorie (beyond category). It is 11.1 kilometers long and has an average gradient of 8.7 percent, which is quite steep. Particularly the first kilometers are tough, with an average gradient exceeding ten percent. So there's absolutely no gentle warm-up.

Once the Hourcere is ticked off, the riders head towards the next obstacle via a long descent. From the Auberge Logibar, they have to cycle over the Puerto de Larrau, the second hors categorie climb on the route for this stage. By the way, we re-enter Spain at the top of this climb, but that is a side note.

The Larrau is 14.9 kilometers long and has an average gradient of eight percent. Due to its irregularity, this figure is somewhat misleading; we can safely describe it as a monstrous climb. To illustrate: between kilometers four and nine, it consistently climbs above ten percent, which is also the case in the grueling final kilometers.

At an altitude of 1579 meters, we reach the top of this col, after which we descend for ten kilometers towards the Puerto de Laza. This is a third-category climb, characterized by its 3.4-kilometer length and an average gradient of 6.3 percent. After this comes another descent of around ten kilometers, followed by a road that begins to rise in a typically Spanish, painfully false-flat manner.

This stretch leading to the final climb of Belague is about fifteen kilometers, after which we start the very last obstacle of the day 9.5 kilometers from the finish. It has an average gradient of 6.3 percent, but again, that's not the whole story. The Belague can actually be divided into two parts: the first seven kilometers are around seven percent, after which it nearly flattens out towards the top. This is the first time we finish on this col in the Vuelta.

Climbs
66.2 km: COL HOURCÉRE (11.1 km at 8.7%)
109.0 km: PUERTO DE LARRAU (14.9 km at 8.0%)
123.1 km:PUERTO DE LAZA (3.4 km at 6.3%)
156.2 km: PUERTO DE BELAGUA (9.5 km at 6.3%)

Times
Start: 1:17 p.m.
Finish: around 5:30 p.m.

The bulk of the stage proceeds in a southerly direction, which is also where the wind is coming from. With temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius, the wind will mainly be head-on, although we should note that it shifts to tailwind on the final climb due to the turn we make there.

Well, how will they approach this stage after the hammer blow that Jumbo-Visma dealt on Friday? With the relatively long flat approach, we expect another barrage of attacks in the opening hour of the stage, where the less climbing-inclined types can support the better climbers in catching the 'right' breakaway. Or does Jumbo-Visma also want to strike in the second part of the Pyrenees?

We don't think so, and we want to highlight Michael Storer of Groupama-FDJ as the top favorite for this stage. The Australian reached the top of the Aubisque first on Friday, which you don't do if you don't have good legs. Afterwards, he had to support teammate Lenny Martinez, but it eventually seems that Storer climbed the Tourmalet at a conservative pace.

Storer doesn't yet hold the mountain jersey, which after the Jumbo-Visma raid is now with Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane is eleven points ahead of Storer, while Sepp Kuss is also in the mix with a nine-point deficit. However, those men are not specifically targeting the polka dot jersey, although they, along with Primoz Roglic, are of course heavy favorites in the scenario of a battle among the general classification riders. Given that last kilometer, perhaps even the most so.

Because it's still quite a long way to the finish line after the two hors catégorie climbs, it's possible that some unexpected names may emerge on the final climb. In the last flat kilometers, riders like Romain Grégoire, Jésus Herrada, Einer Augusto Rubio, Andreas Kron, and Rui Costa could still have a chance. And of course, Lennard Kämna from BORA-hansgrohe as well!

However, they would first have to survive everything that comes before that. For this, we think strong climbers like Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich), Juan Pedro Lopez (Lidl-Trek), Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious), and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) are better equipped. How resilient would the latter show himself to be if he manages to win on Saturday? Also, keep an eye on his teammates Mattia Cattaneo, Louis Vervaeke, and Jan Hirt.

With Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler (UAE), Cian Uijtdebroeks, Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA-hansgrohe), Santiago Buitrago, Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), and Enric Mas (Movistar), we should also mention the other general classification riders. But in what scenario do they really have a chance of taking the stage win? There aren't many, although Ayuso in particular still has a decent sprint in his legs.

Top favorites: Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ) and Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma)
Outsiders: Sepp Kuss, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich) and Juan Pedro Lopez (Lidl-Trek)
Longshots: Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler (UAE-Team Emirates), Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe), Mikel Landa, Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious), Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), Mattia Cattaneo and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)