Favorites stage 11 Tour de France 2025 | Sorry peloton, after the rest day, van der Poel gets another opportunity

After a rest day in Toulouse, the Tour will resume in the same city on Wednesday. We will head north, where the first climb of the day looms after 24 kilometers. The Côte de Castelnau-d'Estrétefonds is 1.4 kilometers long with an average gradient of 6.6%, which could be a good springboard if no breakaway has formed by then.

We will turn clockwise, so after the first climb, the riders will continue south. It is not entirely flat, but there are no real climbs either. In the intermediate phase, everything will unfold in the run-up to the intermediate sprint, which takes place in the village of Labastide-Beauvoir.

Shortly after the sprint for the points (we are already 100 kilometers into the race), the final phase begins, with a series of short climbs in quick succession. The Côte de Montsignard (1.6 kilometers at 5.3%) and the Côte de Corronsac (900 meters at 6.7%) are right after each other, followed quickly by three uncategorized climbs. It's up, down, up, down, up, and down again.

With just over 15 kilometers to go, the riders face the Côte de Vieille-Toulouse (1.3 kilometers at 6.8%). After a short descent, the final climb follows immediately: the fairly steep Montée Pech David (800 meters at 12.4%). The summit is barely 10 kilometers from the finish, although there are still quite a few turns in those final kilometers. In the city center of Toulouse, attackers will hope to use those turns to their advantage.

Climbs
Côte de Castelnau-d'Estrétefonds: 1.4 kilometers at 6.6%
Côte de Montsignard: 1.6 kilometers at 5.3%
Côte de Corronsac: 900 meters at 6.7%
Côte de Vieille-Toulouse: 1.3 kilometers at 6.8%
Montée Pech David: 800 meters at 12.4%

Times
Start: 1:15 PM local time (07:15 AM EDT)
Finish: 5:05 PM local time (11:05 AM EDT)

The weather forecast for Wednesday in France is again excellent. In Toulouse, temperatures are expected to be around 30 degrees Celsius, although the scorching sun will add to the heat. The moderate wind from the northwest will not play a role, although it will blow from the front in the final.

Stage 11 looks like another stage for punchers and attackers, so we're listing Mathieu van der Poel as our first contender. The Dutchman from Alpecin-Deceuninck threw his strength around in the first 10 days of the Tour, so Tuesday's rest day was probably very welcome. The route looks ideal for MVDP's second Tour victory of the year.

If van der Poel is in good shape, that would also mean that Wout van Aert should be in contention for the prizes. The Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike sprinted unexpectedly to second place on Saturday but has not been able to keep up with the best in this Tour. How are his legs after the rest day?

In addition to the two big names in cycling, there are, of course, many more attackers in the Tour. What about Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers)? The puncher also has a very strong finish in his legs. The same goes for Magnus Cort (Uno-X), who has been riding anonymously so far. Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) has also shown in this Tour de France that he can keep up with the best on these kinds of climbs, as has the young Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL).

Are there any other attackers? Oh, definitely! Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla), Fred Wright (Bahrain Victorious), Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Marc Hirschi (Tudor), Alex Aranburu (Cofidis)... All offensive names who, except Simmons, have not shown much in this Tour de France so far but who could have highlighted a day like Wednesday in their schedules. For the brand-new leader, Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), the stage may not be challenging enough.

The climbs in stage 11 are not particularly tough, which means that the fast riders who are also good climbers could well survive. Whether Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) can do so remains to be seen. Still, sprinters such as Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Jake Stewart (Israel Premier-Tech), Lewis Askey (Groupama-FDJ), Tobias Lund Andresen (Picnic PostNL), and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto) should be able to handle this kind of work.

With what is still to come in this Tour, it seems unlikely to us, but if experience has taught us anything, it is that you always mention Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates-XRG) in these kinds of stages. After all, the world champion does not seem to be keen on saving energy, although he may think twice about that with the upcoming stages in the Pyrenees.

Top favorites:Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders:Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Kasper Asgreen (EF Education-EasyPost), Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) and Oscar Onley (Picnic PostNL)