Favorites stage 16 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Pogacar sets the rules in the final week of the race!

For clarity and for those who missed it: this stage was supposed to include the mythical Stelvio, but severe weather conditions in northern Italy led to its early removal from the route, as the snow on the Stelvio made it impossible to cross the mountain. The Umbrail Pass has been introduced as a worthy replacement.

We start at an elevation of 1903 meters in Livigno, but in no time we're above the magical two-thousand-meter mark. From the start, the route climbs the Passo del Foscagno, four kilometers long with an average gradient of 6.5 percent. This climb has not been categorized by the organizers, the same goes for the climb that follows immediately after: the Passo d'Eira, 4.7 kilometers at 6.3 percent.

However, this double ascent could well be decisive for the eventual outcome of the stage, as it makes it relatively easy for the better climbing attackers to break away. One downside: the stage also includes a long valley, where it's easier for the men in pursuit to make up a lot of time.

Anyway, that's just the part leading up to the Umbrail: this climb of 16.7 kilometers at 7.1 percent peaks after fifty kilometers of racing, following which we also take a small detour into Switzerland. After this climb, there’s a descent of 85 (!) kilometers, followed by another fifty flat kilometers to Bolzano.

After about 170 kilometers, the riders must tackle the Passo Pinei, which will set the stage for the thrilling conclusion of this ride. This climb is 23.4 kilometers long with an average gradient of only 4.7 percent. A short descent follows the summit, after which the Monte Pana poses the final challenge of the day.

This climb is 7.6 kilometers long at a gradient of 6.1 percent, but that's not the whole story. The best – at least for TV viewers – is saved for last, with the final two kilometers averaging a steep gradient of 11.8 percent. Ouch, that's gonna hurt... Especially in these weather conditions.

Climbs
50.2 km: Umbrailpass (16.7 km at 7.1%)
190.0 km: Passo Pinei (23.4 km at 4.7%)
202.0 km: Monte Pana (7.6 km at 6.1%)

Times
Start: 11:35 AM
Finish: around 5:12 PM

While the cyclists had good weather on Sunday, Tuesday promises to be not so great. Weather stations are predicting a lot of rain and fairly low temperatures at the start, which are expected to persist throughout the day. Cold and wet it is, then!

Well, after Sunday there will surely be little hiding, right? Tadej Pogacar seems to be the one setting the rules in this Giro d'Italia. On Sunday, in the stage towards Livigno, he put the finishing touches on his performance, but what now? The Tour de France still awaits Pogacar this summer, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Slovenian and his team decide to take the last week of the Giro a bit easier.

And that, of course, offers opportunities for the breakaways, who already pushed forward en masse on Sunday. In the previous stage, Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost) and especially Nairo Quintana (Movistar) stood out head and shoulders above the rest, so you can expect – as with nearly every grand tour – these names to come up again in the mountain stages that follow.

But there are other contenders in the mix: what about Valentin Paret-Peintre, already a stage winner in this Giro for Decathlon AG2R? Or will the Frenchman have to sacrifice himself for the podium ambitions of teammate Ben O'Connor, who is still locked in a battle for the top three spots with the speedy Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), the faltering Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) and INEOS duo Thymen Arensman and Geraint Thomas.

The men standing a bit further back might even join the fray for the breakaway on Tuesday. Michael Storer (Tudor), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla) and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) can throw their climbing skills into the mix, although the GC is still a concern for them. This is also the case for Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich PostNL), though he has the credentials to play for all or nothing.

Other guys might not need to worry as much about that. Veterans Simon Geschke (Cofidis) and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious) are just starting to hit their stride, or perhaps Pogacar might let his buddy Rafal Majka claim a victory? Last but not least, we want to highlight the young Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) and the more than experienced Domenico Pozzovivo (VF Group-Bardiani), two solid riders participating on behalf of the smaller Italian teams.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
Outsiders: Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe) and Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Geraint Thomas, Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Michael Storer (Tudor), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUa), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step) and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious)