Favorites stage 2 Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 | Strade Bianche aftertaste sets the scene for Van der Poel vs Van Aert?

What starts out as an innocent-looking flat stage ends in spectacle. From Camaiore, the riders face 206 kilometres, and well over 120 of those are essentially pancake flat. Only just before the intermediate sprint in Pomarance does the road begin to rise, and not much later the peloton reaches both the highest point of the day and the first real climb: the ascent to Castelnuovo Val di Cecina.

It is an irregular climb with some genuinely steep ramps. From there, the road never really flattens out again. The rise to Mensano is also quite difficult, even if it is uncategorised. The real focus, however, is on the finale. The road to the finish in San Gimignano rises nastily, but before that the riders still have to tackle a gravel sector of around 5.3 kilometres.

That sector is constantly up and down as well, including a stretch of 1.3 kilometres at 7.6 percent. The final kilometre is on tarmac again, but it is no gift either, averaging roughly 7 percent. Spectacle is guaranteed.

Times
Start: 10:55 AM local time
Finish: approx. 3:45 PM local time

Conditions in Italy should generally be decent, but the weather is expected to worsen a little as the day goes on. Temperatures should sit around 15°C, and there is even a chance of rain near the finish. That could make things very interesting on the gravel.

Naturally, the first names to check are the strong finishers from Strade Bianche. Five riders who finished in the top ten there are also lining up here. Among them are third-place finisher Isaac Del Toro and sixth-place rider Jan Christen of UAE Team Emirates-XRG. Visma | Lease a Bike bring Wout van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson, while the team also has Timo Kielich in its line-up.

The 5.3 kilometres of gravel is, of course, far less than what the riders faced on Saturday, so we can expect a different kind of race. Either way, Mathieu van der Poel has to be near the top of the list, especially with Tibor Del Grosso alongside him as part of a very dangerous duo. EF Education-EasyPost can also play multiple cards, with Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy and Michael Valgren all suited to this sort of stage.

Is the course too hard for Filippo Ganna? Possibly. It may instead suit the more explosive GC men a little better: think Giulio Ciccone of Lidl-Trek, Primoz Roglic and Giulio Pellizzari of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, or Tobias Halland Johannessen of Uno-X Mobility. Bahrain Victorious also have reason to dream, with in-form riders Antonio Tiberi and Santiago Buitrago, while Pello Bilbao gives them another excellent option.

A specialist such as Alberto Bettiol of XDS Astana can always deliver on a day like this. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale have a very dangerous customer in Paul Lapeira, while Corbin Strong of NSN Cycling may also be well suited to this route. Jayco AlUla line up Andrea Vendrame, but also have Dries De Bondt and Alessandro Covi available.

Add mountain biker Alan Hatherly to the mix and the depth only increases. And Julian Alaphilippe of Tudor is also certain to show himself.

Top favorite: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Outsiders: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Isaac Del Toro, Jan Christen (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Long shots: Tibor Del Grosso (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Paul Lapeira (Decathlon CMA CGM), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Ben Healy, Richard Carapaz (EF Education - EasyPost), Santiago Buitrago, Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Alberto Bettiol (XDS Astana), Alan Hatherly (Jayco Alula), Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility).