Favorites stage 4 Paris-Nice 2025 | Vingegaard back on the climb where he struggled two years ago

Now that we have had two stages for sprinters and one team time trial, Paris-Nice heads into the mountains for the first time. It starts from Vichy, which we mainly know as the headquarters of the Vichy government during the Second World War.

From there, the road climbs gently for about forty kilometers, ending at the Cote de Lavoine (7.6 km at 4.1%), ideal for forming a strong breakaway group. After that, we have a transition of about fifty kilometers until the two-stage climb of the Côte de la Croix Bruyère (3.2 km at 5.0%) and the Côte du Canon (3.6 km at 6.7%).

After those two climbs, the route levels off somewhat, but in the end, this stage mainly centers around the final climb to La Loges des Gardes. This 6.7-kilometer-long climb (at 7.1 percent) can be called fairly regular on average, but differences are definitely possible. For example, in 2023, Tadej Pogacar beat Jonas Vingegaard by 43 seconds and casually attacked from the wheel of the Dane.

Climbs
33.6 km: Cote de Lavoine (7.6 km a 4.1%)
79.2 km: Cote de la Bruyere (3.9 km a 4.8%)
106.0 km: Cote de la Croix Bruyere (3.2 km a 5.0%)
111.9 km: Cote du Canon (3.6 km a 6.7%)
150.4 km: Cote de la Chabanne (2.7 km a 5.3%)
163.4 km: La Loge des Gardes (6.7 km a 7.1%)

Times
Start: 06:30 AM EST
Finish: 10:29 AM EST

Some rain is expected in France on Wednesday, at temperatures of around 5 to 10 degrees Celsius, the riders must dress warmly. The wind is not likely to have much impact on the stage.

Jonas Vingegaard still has unfinished business with the climb to La Loge des Gardes after 2023. So don't be surprised if the Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike wants to show off his skills on this day as Tadej Pogacar did last Saturday again in Strade Bianche. The Dutch team can also count on defending champion and leader Matteo Jorgenson as a second option.

If you say Visma | Lease a Bike, you say UAE Emirates-XRG, without Pogacar, but with Joao Almeida, Brandon McNulty, and Pavel Sivakov. Of the three, Almeida seems to be the strongest on paper. If the Portuguese had the legs of the Tour of the Algarve, he could just about approach Vingegaard's level. Based on the explosiveness of one of those climbs, guys like Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) will also aim for that.

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe will use Aleksandr Vlasov and Florian Lipowitz as their leaders, while Jayco AlUla will want to test out 2024 sensation Ben O'Connor for the first time. Other climbing types are Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step) and Harold Tejada (XDS-Astana). At the same time, Movistar has two outsiders in the ranks, Ivan Romeo and Pablo Castrillo.  

Top favorite: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Joao Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG)
Long shots: Aleksandr Vlasov, Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla), Brandon McNulty (UAE Emirates-XRG), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) and Harold Tejada (XDS-Astana)