Favorites stage 5 Giro d'Italia 2025 | Will Pedersen and Roglic meet again in the fight for bonus seconds??

Stage 5 is a short one at just 151 kilometres, starting in Ceglie Messapica and finishing in Matera. The route kicks off in the scenic region of Puglia and heads inland from the southern coastline. While the first 30 kilometres feature a gentle rise, the real action is packed into the final stretch, with barely any obstacles in the opening 119 kilometres.

That all changes after that point. First up is a category 4 climb, the only one awarding mountain points. It’s just 2.8 kilometres long but averages a steep 8.5 percent. More importantly, from the summit on, it’s all up and down. Riders then face a steady drag towards Castello Tramontano with a nasty kicker at the end, followed by two more short climbs before the run-in to the line.

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The final kicker of the day averages nearly 8 percent over the last 700 meters, followed by just two more kilometers to the line. It’s a launchpad for late attacks, though a sprint from a reduced bunch remains a realistic outcome. The uphill finish favors explosive riders, but they’ll also need to navigate two sharp corners before the final 300 meters straighten out.

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Times
Start: 1:50 p.m.
Finish: around 5:12 p.m.

It will be a sunny start in Ceglie Messapica with temperatures around 20°C (68°F) and a light northeast breeze. As the route briefly hugs the southern Italian coast, winds will drop and temperatures will climb to 22°C (72°F), peaking at 25°C (77°F). With Matera sitting a bit higher, riders can expect cooler conditions at the finish around 15°C (59°F), still ideal racing weather.

Pure sprinters may get a breather today, but the fast men who can handle a climb are looking at a perfect finish. Once again, all eyes are on Mads Pedersen. The Dane has been in the mix nearly every day and this finale suits him to a tee. Lidl-Trek will back him fully. If the GC contenders blow things apart, Giulio Ciccone could be a valuable card to play.

At Visma | Lease a Bike, Wout van Aert is the go-to name, though questions remain about his legs. Olav Kooij could be in the mix if he's on form, but that’s still uncertain. The same goes for Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quick Step), who both struggled in the tough finishes on stages 1 and 3. That’s why better-climbing sprinters like Orluis Aular (Movistar) and Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) might be more likely contenders today.

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If Magnier doesn’t make the cut, Quick Step can still pivot to Ethan Hayter or Luke Lamperti, though the latter hasn’t shown much so far. Hayter, on the other hand, impressed in the time trial. Other punchers have already made their presence known, like Tom Pidcock for Q36.5 and Brandon Rivera of INEOS. This could also be a day for riders like Quinten Hermans (Alpecin), Diego Ulissi (Astana), Rick Pluimers (Tudor) or Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) to shine.

There is also a chance that GC teams take control, not necessarily to gain time but to stay safe and up front. That could make things really fast in the final kilometers. Besides Ciccone and Pidcock, we might see more GC riders with a strong punch feature here. Primoz Roglic could very well win this stage for Red Bull BORA hansgrohe and maybe even retake pink. But Richard Carapaz (EF), Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso (UAE), Max Poole (Picnic PostNL), Davide Piganzoli (Polti) and David Gaudu (Groupama FDJ) are all sharp finishers to keep an eye on.

Top favorites:Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Ethan Hayter (Soudal-Quick Step), Orluis Aular (Movistar) and Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech)
Long shots: Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quick Step), Quinten Hermans (Alpecin), Diego Ulissi (Astana), Rick Pluimers (Tudor), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Richard Carapaz (EF) and Juan Ayuso (UAE)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])