Favorites stage 6 Giro d'Italia 2024 | A taste of Strade Bianche, but will it be as tricky as everyone says?

Torre del Lago Puccini, Viareggio. That's where we'll kick off this sixth stage of the Giro d'Italia, not far from the coast. The riders will bid farewell to the sea for a few days as we head inland into Tuscany. In the hinterlands of Pisa, the riders will have seventy kilometers to get settled before the first elevation gains appear.

Yet, this phase could turn out to be crucial: for many of the GC contenders, while they cannot win the Giro in this stage, they can certainly lose it. This was the case in 2021 when the peloton allowed a breakaway group with Mauro Schmid, the eventual winner, to get a significant lead in a gravel stage to Montalcino. If a strong group of about ten strong riders manages to break away in this stage, the peloton might not see them again until after the finish.

Moving on with the stage: the climb to Volterra (9.8 km at 4.2%) is the day's first challenge, following which it’s a constant up and down through the Tuscan hills. After 103 kilometers, there's a brief respite following the intermediate sprint, but soon the focus will shift back to positioning. All hands on deck on the provincial road.

After 130 kilometers, the peloton will encounter the first of three gravel segments. Vidritta, the opening section in the Strade Bianche, must be tackled first, followed closely by the Bagnaia stretch. The latter is especially daunting as it coincides with a 2.5-kilometer climb to Grotti, which averages a 6 percent incline but includes stretches as steep as 15 percent. Together, these two segments make up 9.2 kilometers of gravel.

For a competitor like Pogacar looking to put pressure on his rivals, this segment offers a prime opportunity. Beyond this, a forty-kilometer stretch of those classic Tuscan rolling hills awaits. This includes uncategorized climbs that, while not officially ranked, will certainly leave a mark after a long and likely nerve-wracking day.

With about twenty kilometers to go, the riders will hit the third and final gravel section at Pievina. This 2.4-kilometer stretch is not only challenging due to its length but also offers bonus seconds at the summit. Afterwards, the descent leads us into a deceptive flat section, setting the stage for the formidable climb of Serri di Rapolano. Any remaining energy the men have will be thoroughly tested here.

The climb, which begins just 5.4 kilometers from the finish, spans 1.2 kilometers with an average gradient of 8.4 percent. It features a narrow path where the incline peaks at a whopping 20 percent. After cresting the hill, a descent of roughly the same length leads into the final three-kilometer push through to the heart of Rapolano di Terme. The last 450 meters will challenge the peloton one last time with a 6 percent incline.

Climbs
80.4 km: Volterra (9.8 km at 4.2%)
140.4 km: Grotti (2.5 km at 6.0%)

Times
Start: 12:55 PM
Finish: around 5:13 PM

Bite that dust! This Thursday in Tuscany, we can expect temperatures around 22 degrees Celsius with no rain in sight. The wind will blow from the northeast at a Beaufort scale force of 3, mostly acting as a crosswind throughout the day but shifting to a headwind in the closing stages.

Who? What? Why? When? These are the key questions as we approach the sixth stage of the Giro d'Italia. Some sprinter teams have suggested their better climbing sprinters might manage this course, but the terrain suggests we should probably discount that idea. If a sprinter is to compete for the win, it would most likely have to be from an early breakaway.

This strategy could realistically succeed since most GC teams are expected to adopt a more conservative approach to this stage. Tadej Pogacar, having won Strade Bianche, might see this as a perfect opportunity to pressure his rivals, but will he risk exhausting his team early on and then have to navigate some of the race himself, especially with only about twelve kilometers of gravel roads?

On the flip side, several outsiders will have marked this stage with a big 'X' on their calendars. Take the Soudal Quick-Step duo Julian Alaphilippe and Mauri Vansevenant, who excel on punchy climbs like those featured here. For Vansevenant, it’s a prime opportunity to temporarily snatch the pink jersey from Pogacar, given he's not seen as a long-term threat to the Slovenian.

Turning our attention to other GC contenders, we spotlight riders like Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL). Their explosive power could give them an edge over pure climbers like Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Juan Pedro López (Lidl-Trek) and Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R). We're also keeping an eye on former cyclo-crosser Thymen Arensman of INEOS Grenadiers and his team leader Geraint Thomas.

Among the standouts on day one were Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Maximilian Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe). Narváez, for whom Strade Bianche is a favorite, has specifically targeted this stage, while the British team's Filippo Ganna and Magnus Sheffield also show promise. Schachmann, a podium finisher in this gravel race back in 2020, along with these gentlemen, has the potential to contend for the a podium.

Alpecin-Deceuninck boasts aggressive riders like Quinten Hermans and Nicola Conci, with Kaden Groves potentially vying for the points classification. Astana Qazaqstan Team can rely on Simone Velasco and Cristian Scaroni. When it comes to EF Education-EasyPost, Mikkel Honoré has already demonstrated his capabilities multiple times, and Ewen Costiou (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) made a brief showing on Tuesday. Kevin Vermaerke (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R) and spring sensation Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) also have potential. Matteo Trentin of Tudor has the credentials, though it’s notable that, as a seasoned spring rider, he hasn’t competed in Strade since 2017.

We also shouldn’t overlook two of Strade Bianche's top ten finishers: Filippo Zana of Jayco AlUla, ranked ninth, and Visma | Lease a Bike's Christophe Laporte, tenth this year. Just like his teammate Attila Valter — who already finished in the Strade Bianche top five twice! — he took a hard fall on Wednesday, which might mean Visma | Lease a Bike will need to focus their attention on Cian Uijtdebroeks.

Top favorites: Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step)
Outsiders: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates), Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) and Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Long shots: Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Alexey Lutsenko, Simone Velasco (Astana Qazaqtan Team), Nicola Conci (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Mikkel Honoré (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ), Mauri Vansevenant (Soudal Quick-Step) and Ewen Costiou (Arkéa - B&B Hotels)