Favorites stage 6 Paris-Nice 2025 | Should the riders keep the pace high from the start to beat Merlier?

After all the elevation meters of the past few days, the program includes a much less difficult stage. The organization has chosen a mostly flat ride to Berre l'Étang, the longest stage at 210 kilometers. From the start in Saint-Julien-en-Saint-Alban, there are three categorized climbs, with an intermediate sprint on a hill in the final.

The start is immediately uphill, giving breakaway riders a good chance to make a difference. You can count on a fierce battle breaking out early in the race: it is quite possible that a large group of strong riders will take off, like a real transition stage in the Tour de France. The riders will first encounter the relatively easy Côte de Pouzilhac, which will not significantly impact the race. But the further the race progresses, the more exciting it will become.

After the Côte de Baux-de-Provence (2.5 km at 5%) and the Côte de Mouriès (1.2 km at 4.2%), the climb to Lançon-Provence could cause some trouble. Although it is not very long (950 meters, 5.8% gradient), with less than 20 kilometers to go and the bonus sprint at the top, it could be very difficult for the sprinters. If not, it will be a flat sprint along the Mediterranean coast.

Climbs
88 km - Côte de Pouzilhac (1.8 km a 4.7%)
144.5 km - Côte de Baux-de-Provence (2.5 km a 5%)
160 km - Côte de Mouriès (1.2 km a 4.2%)

Times
Start: 05:35 AM EST
Finish: 10:25 AM EST

Finally, the riders will have some relief. The temperature along the Mediterranean coast will rise to about 13 degrees Celsius, and there will be little rain. A few drops may fall here and there, but it will not be the apocalyptic conditions of the past few days. The wind may play a role as we get closer to the coast.

After two days for the climbers, we expect to see very different names. The route is almost flat, so we will look mainly at the names that did well in the first two stages. And then there is Tim Merlier, who cannot be ignored. The Belgian from Soudal Quick-Step proved to be the fastest man in the race by a long way with his double-stage victory. It will be difficult to beat him, but who knows after such difficult days.

And who is always good after and during difficult days? That's right, Mads Pedersen. The Danish rider from Lidl-Trek worked like no other at the front for his team on roads where other sprinters had long since been left behind. His legs seem fine, and he will be there if it is a tough race. The same goes for Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike), who Matteo Jorgenson perfectly positioned on the final climb on Thursday. Other fast men with potential are Jhonatan Narváez, Michael Matthews, Anthony Turgis, and Tobias Lund Andresen.

The sprinters who have survived the past few days also hope to capitalize on their opportunity. Alberto Dainese (Tudor) was already relatively close, and the same goes for Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) and Emilien Jeannière (TotalEnergies). Their fellow countryman Hugo Page (Intermarché-Wanty) should also definitely be mentioned. Looking at the first stage, we think Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Mobility) will again have a difficult time, but who knows?  

Top favorite: Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Outsiders: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-trek), Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike), Alberto Dainese (Tudor), Emilien Jeannière (TotalEnergies) and Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla)
Long shots: Hugo Page (Intermarché-Wanty), Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Tobias Lund Andresen (Picnic PostNL), Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies) and Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Mobility)