Favorites stage 6 Vuelta a Espana 2023 | Evenepoel likely to relinquish red jersey to challengers

The start is scheduled around lunchtime in Vall d'Uixó, not too far from the Mediterranean Sea. Although the riders may catch a hint of the saltwater scent, they won't catch sight of it. Right from the beginning of the stage, they'll be facing a challenging ascent. Following two days of predominantly downhill terrain, the sixth stage presents a notably demanding uphill course. A mere two kilometers into the stage, a 4.4-kilometer climb with a gradient of five percent awaits, serving as an early test for tenacious escape artists.

Following a brief descent, the route continues to climb for an extended period, leading to the first categorized ascent: the Puerto de Arenillas. This climb stretches 5.8 kilometers at an average gradient of 4.7 percent. After another descent, the challenging Alto Fuente de Rubielos looms, featuring 6.1 kilometers of ascent at a gradient of 6.2 percent. Although this climb might eventually become a mere footnote, as we anticipate a strong breakaway group to have formed by this point.

After crossing this summit, the route remains on a plateau, featuring an intermediate sprint at an altitude of 1340 meters in Torijas. From there, a continuous descent leads to the base of the formidable final climb: the Pico del Buitre, aptly translated as the Vulture's Peak. Designated as a first-category mountain, it promises to provide captivating spectacle. The statistics? A length of 10.9 kilometers with an average gradient of eight percent. But there's more to it than just that.

Upon closer examination of the profile of the final climb, a sea of black becomes evident. The initial three kilometers offer a manageable average gradient of five percent. However, the challenge intensifies over the next two kilometers, where the gradient escalates to over nine percent. Following a brief descent spanning a few hundred meters, the riders must tackle an arduous five-kilometer stretch:

The subsequent gradients per kilometer read as follows: 9.8 percent, 11.4 percent, 9.4 percent, 10.3 percent, and 7.4 percent. This daunting sequence leads the riders to the Peak of the Vulture, located near the Javalambre Observatory, marking the finish line. This ascent was first encountered in 2019, when a Dutchman came close to claiming a stage victory. During that edition, Jetse Bol was narrowly outperformed by his teammate Ángel Madrazo, who had forged ahead in an early breakaway. Meanwhile, notable contenders for the General Classification such as Miguel Ángel López, Alejandro Valverde, and Primoz Roglic exhibited their prowess on this challenging climb.

Climbs
48.8 km: PUERTO DE ARENILLAS (5.8 km at 4.7%)
83.1 km: ALTO FUENTE DE RUBIELOS (6.1 km at 6.2%)
183.1 km: PICO DEL BUITRE (10.9 km at 8.0%)

Times
Start: 12:34 p.m.
Finish: around 5:30 p.m.

The drivers have little to fear from the weather conditions on Thursday. Both at the start and atop the Javalambre observatory, it will be sunny, with temperatures around 25 degrees Celsius and barely any wind.

In virtually every interview conducted since Monday, Remco Evenepoel has deliberated the prospect of relinquishing the leader's jersey on Thursday. Thus, this sixth stage seems to align with that perspective: the prime contenders for the day's victory are likely to be the early breakaway riders, including those vying for the red jersey. This scenario mirrors the dynamics witnessed on the final climb in 2019.

Earning the status of an intermediate pawn is no simple feat; it's a distinction that must be merited. This brings us to the classification of riders like Lennard Kämna. The German cyclist from BORA-hansgrohe was already in close contention on Monday but now holds a more prominent position in the overall ranking. Joining him are riders such as Einer Augusto Rubio (Movistar), Javier Romo, David de la Cruz (Astana), and Sean Quinn (EF Education-EasyPost). Notably, none of them are perceived as a threat to the overall ranking in the context of the Madrid finish.

Caja Rural's Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda has now secured the 17th position in the general classification, making him the foremost contender for the red jersey. Even though Evenepoel hinted that riders like Cian Uijtdebroeks - currently holding the sixth spot for BORA-hansgrohe - might also be contenders for the leader's jersey, we find it unlikely. However, names such as Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious) and potentially even Steff Cras (TotalEnergies) could be considered.

Riders such as Juan Pedro López (Lidl-Trek), Mikel Landa, Damiano Caruso, Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), and Hugh Carthy (EF Education-EasyPost) are also positioned a bit further ahead. However, with these names, we are transitioning into another tier of riders. This trend continues with Egan Bernal (INEOS) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-Samsic), although they are currently trailing by around four minutes. The latter has the advantage of a capable teammate, Cristian Rodriguez, who can provide valuable support in this context.

Amidst those contenders who still have a shot at seizing the red jersey, there are also riders who are solely targeting a stage victory: Michael Storer, Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Sergio Higuita, Emanuel Buchmann (BORA-hansgrohe), Romain Bardet (who suffered a significant setback on Wednesday), Max Poole (DSM-firmenich), Jason Osborne (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Geoffrey Bouchard (AG2R Citroën), Joe Dombrowski (Astana), Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), Lennert Van Eetvelt, Sylvain Moniquet (Lotto-Dstny), Rein Taaramäe (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), and Bauke Mollema (Lidl-Trek) are all part of this category, taking into consideration the gaps they currently face.

In case anyone attempts to bridge the gap to the leading group or undertakes the entire day's route, it's expected that the classification contenders will come into play. Naturally, Evenepoel will be in the mix, as well as the Jumbo-Visma trio comprising of Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard, and Sepp Kuss. It's unlikely that these riders will be willing to exhaust their support riders in a stage like this. Perhaps Enric Mas (Movistar), Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA-hansgrohe), or the formidable UAE Team Emirates riders featuring Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida, Jay Vine, and Marc Soler, have strategies in mind?

Top favorites: Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe) and Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich)
Outsiders: Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Dstny), David de la Cruz (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious)
Longshots: Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), Juan Ayuso (UAE-Team Emirates), Enric Mas (Movistar), Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), Sean Quinn (EF Education-EasyPost), Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ) and Sergio Higuita (BORA-hansgrohe)