Favorites stage 7 Paris-Nice 2026 | More contenders than just Vingegaard after finale change

Stage 7 of Paris–Nice was originally set to take the riders from Nice to Auron, over a distance of 138.7 kilometres. The peloton was due to start earlier than on previous days, with the original departure planned for 12:20 and the finish expected shortly after 15:00.

The biggest danger, however, was not the route itself but the weather, which is forecast to be wet, cold and punishing. The Côte de Carros, a second-category climb, does not take the riders too high, and its 7 kilometres at an average of 5.1 percent are followed by the Côte de Bouyon, which rises for 1.7 kilometres at 6.1 percent.

That section still looked manageable, even in poor conditions. The real problem was the finish, with the stage originally ending atop Auron. That final climb of just over 7 kilometres at a little more than 7 percent average gradient came under serious pressure, because with the summit above 1,600 metres, it threatened to turn into a miserable and potentially unsafe ordeal.

So the organisation stepped in. The route from Nice will still be ridden as planned, but once the road starts to climb in Pont-de-Clans, the finale will be significantly shortened. The finish will no longer be in Auron, but in Isola, at the site of what had previously been the intermediate sprint, at an altitude of 855 metres.

“The weather forecasts make a finish in Auron impossible, with the rain-snow line at 1,100 metres. To guarantee the safety of the riders, it has been decided to adapt the route. The stage has been shortened to 120.4 kilometres,” the organisers explained.

Times
Start: 12:20 PM local time
Finish: approx. 3:08 PM local time

Wind and a lot of rain are expected, starting already in Nice on Saturday morning. The riders would be wise to dress warmly and waterproof, because with feels-like temperatures around 10°C at the start and steady rainfall forecast, this promises to be a cold and soaking day out. At the finish in Isola, the temperature is expected to sit at around 4°C, while the wind chill could make it feel close to freezing.

It is not entirely clear how steep the final kilometres of the stage will be, but the pure climbers will not be thrilled with this change. Under normal circumstances this would have been a more selective mountain finish, yet now they may find themselves up against riders who can survive better on more rolling uphill terrain. One thing is clear: the finale will no longer be truly steep.

We still rate Jonas Vingegaard as fully capable of making the difference, simply because the Visma | Lease a Bike leader appears to be one or two levels above the rest. Even on gentler gradients, the Dane can ride away from this field. The only question is whether he will feel the need to do so. Visma | Lease a Bike may also look to Axel Zingle, who very nearly survived the finale of stage 6.

At Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, we do not necessarily expect Daniel Felipe Martínez to open up a decisive gap on his own, but brothers Tim van Dijke and Mick van Dijke should be rubbing their hands with this adjusted finish. Both have been climbing extremely well in this Paris–Nice and they also have a fast finish. Laurence Pithie could be another rider to watch here.

At INEOS Grenadiers, the team had already been preparing for a battle in support of Kévin Vauquelin, but this stage may now offer him a shot not only at the general classification but perhaps at the stage win as well. The Frenchman has a strong punch, and a rider like Dorian Godon should also be suited to this kind of uphill run-in. At Lidl-Trek, Mathias Vacek stands out as a serious option: he has been climbing very comfortably so far and he can sprint too.

Who else has ambitions here? In the results from stage 6, Lewis Askey (NSN), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) and Matteo Trentin (Tudor) all finished in the top five, although that final climb may still be a little too long for the latter two. Luke Lamperti (EF Education-EasyPost) should, in theory, be able to handle a finish like this, though he did not survive the stage 6 finale. At EF, Georg Steinhauser remains the team’s man for the general classification.

All of that assumes the peloton will still make the difference on the uphill sections, but of course a successful breakaway has now become much more realistic as well. Could Joshua Tarling (INEOS Grenadiers) light things up for one more day? Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies) and Stefan Bissegger (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) are interesting attacking options too. And if it turns into a sprint from a reduced group, then Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) and Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step) also deserve a place on the shortlist.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Tim van Dijke (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe).
Outsiders: Mick van Dijke, Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike), Dorian Godon (INEOS Grenadiers) and Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek)
Long shots: Daniel Felipe Martínez ( Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Kévin Vauquelin, Joshua Tarling (INEOS Grenadiers), Luke Lamperti (EF Education-EasyPost), Lewis Askey (NSN),Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Stefan Bissegger (Decathlon), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick Step), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) and Matteo Trentin (Tudor)

Bram van der Ploeg ( X: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])