Favorites stage 1 Tour of the Alps 2026 | Sorry Tom, but on paper this one immediately looks made for you

After the dust has settled from the Amstel Gold Race, the peloton moves straight on to five days of the Tour of the Alps. The race through South Tyrol starts this year in Innsbruck, Austria, and the organisers have immediately laid out a demanding route for the opening day. So who are the favorites for the stage win — and with it, the first leader’s jersey of the week?

The opening day around Innsbruck is built around circuits. After 25 kilometres, the riders complete two laps that include the climb to the Mieminger Plateau. That ascent only offers mountain points the second time up, and at 6.2 kilometres with an average gradient of 3.7 percent, it is not the kind of climb that should frighten too many riders just yet.

The climb that appears twice in the finale is a different story. The ascent to Götzens is 4 kilometres long and averages 7 percent, making it much more selective. It counts for mountain points only the first time over the top, while the second and final passage does still carry bonus seconds.

From the summit, there are still 22 kilometres to the finish. The run-in is flat, which should give sprinters with climbing legs a real chance. Or will a breakaway rider manage to hold off the chase?

Times
Start: 11:55 AM local time
Finish: around 3:15 PM local time

After a long spell of good weather, rain arrived in Innsbruck on Sunday. That brought temperatures down sharply, although the riders should at least start Monday morning in dry conditions. Temperatures are not expected to climb above 10 degrees Celsius before midday.

In the afternoon, things should warm up quickly to around 15 degrees, helped by the sun. A light north-easterly breeze of force 1 to 2 should not play any meaningful role in the race.

We are looking for riders with a real burst of acceleration, riders brave enough to go from distance, or otherwise riders who can survive a climb and still produce a fast finish. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe have a young rider who fits that mould. Lorenzo Finn should be capable of making it through the finale and, if he is still there, he has the speed to contest a reduced sprint.

For cycling fans, it is useful that there are no overwhelming names who stand far above the rest on this terrain. That could make the race explode on the final climb, or even on the penultimate ascent. Tom Pidcock will always be suited to this kind of profile for Pinarello-Q36.5, but the big question is how strong the Briton will be after his crash at the Volta a Catalunya, which also forced changes to his Ardennes programme.

If the general classification riders already start accelerating, Red Bull can also count on the fast legs of Giulio Pellizzari. INEOS Grenadiers have another interesting name in Victor Langellotti, while Lidl-Trek may be able to rely on Matteo Sobrero in a sprint from a small group of strong climbers. Apparently, Andrea D’Amato of Team UKYO is quick as well, at least according to the PCS figures.

Even though there is a leader’s jersey on offer, a breakaway may also be able to last a long time. Which team is going to chase if nobody feels certain of victory? The Bais brothers, Mattia and Davide, are always good candidates in that kind of scenario. And what can attackers such as Finlay Pickering of Jayco AlUla, Florian Stork of Tudor and Embret Svestad-Bårdseng of INEOS Grenadiers do?

Top favorites: Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Outsiders: Matteo Sobrero (Lidl-Trek), Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Finlay Pickering (Jayco AlUla), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Embret Svestad-Bårdseng (INEOS), Mattia and Davide Bais (Polti VisitMalta)

Bram van der Ploeg ( X: @BvdPloegg | email : [email protected])