Favourites stage 5 Tour of the Basque Country 2026 | The Pogačar and Vingegaard of this race decides

To Paul Seixas, or to not Paul Seixas? The Tour of the Basque Country is being held in the grip of a 19-year-old Frenchman, as if Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard were taking part. The big question is: will Decathlon CMA CGM, after two days for the breakaway, let an attacker win again? Or will the great leader run away with it for the third time this week? IDL Pro Cycling previews stage 5.

In many ways, the fifth stage actually resembles the one from a day earlier. Just as on Thursday, many climbing kilometres will be covered on Friday, but always on the short, steep hillsides typical of the Basque Country. From Eibar it goes uphill quickly, first with the short Elkorrieta, the with the Azurki, the second-longest climb of the day.

After a short valley follows the tough Etumeta, after which the longest stretch without an official climb follows. In those 37 kilometres, however, it still goes constantly up and down. The Kalbario is short but steep, and 20 kilometres later comes perhaps the toughest climb. The Krabelin (5 km at 9.6%) features sections up to 18%, and lies 70 kilometres from the finish.

It will probably be too far for a real attack, although you never know. After a hilly phase (plus the Trabakua climb and a Red Bull kilometre) towards an intermediate sprint in start-finish town Eibar, the finale truly begins with the Izua climb. 4.1 kilometres, but 9.2% average, crucially 27 kilometres from the finish. This is where it will really blow apart.

And we are still not done with climbing. The Urkaregi is the last climb and the longest ordeal of the day. At 4.7%, however, it is not steep. After the descent follows a short phase of false flat, after which the finish lies in Eibar. 4,000 metres of elevation gain later, that is.

Times
Start: 1:05 p.m.
Finish: approx. 5:15 p.m.

Just like the previous days, the peloton will notice nothing of the changeability of the Basque Country. It will be between 22 and 28 degrees, without a drop of rain. The wind will not be a factor.

Paul Seixas divides and conquers. If he decides on Friday that he wants to win, nobody seems capable of stopping him. Decathlon CMA CGM will then have to get to work to bring back a breakaway, before their team leader can finish it off with the best legs of the bunch.

Perhaps the Frenchman will keep his powder dry, however, and leave the battle for the stage win to the breakaway riders for the third day in a row. On Saturday, Seixas will face another tough finale, in which he can put the finishing touches on the final day.

And so we first look among the attackers, who also featured prominently in recent days. Several teams are well represented. XDS Astana had Lorenzo Fortunato and Christian Scaroni. Clément Braz Afonso and Guillaume Martin are the cards to play for Groupama-FDJ United.

UAE Emirates-XRG also have plenty of offensive options left after the withdrawal of Isaac del Toro, in the shape of Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler and Igor Arrieta. The latter was beaten on day three in a two-man sprint by Axel Laurance of INEOS Grenadiers. Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) also already has a stage win to his name.

Movistar was busy on the attack with Natnael Tesfatsion and Juan Pedro López, and Tobias Halland Johannessen is also making a strong impression at Uno-X Mobility. On behalf of the Belgians, we saw Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal Quick-Step) and Emiel Verstrynge (Alpecin-Premier Tech) at the front, but they came up short.

There could also be a play from the general classification, of course, with the minute advantage Seixas already has. Will he react if guys like Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), Alex Baudin (EF Education-EasyPost), Clément Champoussin, Harold Tejada (both Astana) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain - Victorious) go?

Moves can of course also be made from within the GC, given the minutes' lead that Seixas already has. Will he respond when men like Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), Alex Baudin (EF Education-EasyPost), Clément Champoussin, Harold Tejada (both Astana) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) go on the attack?

The last scenario is an off day for Seixas, which is of course perfectly possible at his 19 years of age. In that case, the other men in the general classification would suddenly come into the picture for the stage win. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe have Florian Lipowitz and Primož Roglič, Lidl-Trek are banking on Mattias Skjelmose and Visma | Lease a Bike are hoping for Ben Tulett. Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar) is also one to watch.

Top favorite: Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)
Outsiders: Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Christian Scaroni (Astana), Igor Arrieta (UAE Emirates-XRG), Axel Laurance (INEOS Grenadiers) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
Long shots: Ion Izagirre, Alex Aranburu (Cofidis), Mattias Skjelmose ( Lidl-Trek), Primoz Roglic, Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Alex Baudin (EF Education-EasyPost), Ben Tulett (Visma | Lease a Bike),Clément Champoussin, Harold Tejada (Astana), Clément Braz Afonso (Groupama-FDJ United), Juan Pedro López (Lidl-Trek) and Marc Soler (UAE Emirates-XRG)