How can Visma and Vingegaard make up 4 minutes? "They were better on the Ventoux," says Zonneveld

Dutch analyst Thijs Zonneveld is eagerly looking forward to the two brutal mountain stages before the weekend. “This is where the Tour organizers have placed the main battleground of this ‘anti-Pogi Tour,’” he said on the In de Waaier podcast. But ‘anti-Pogi Tour’ or not, the chances of Vingegaard winning the race are still slim. “I’d give it a 5 to 10 percent chance.”

Still, there is a chance... and maybe even a bigger one than Simon Yates had of winning the Giro d’Italia, which he did. On Mont Ventoux, we saw Pogacar grimace for the first time while following Vingegaard’s wheel. “It wasn’t just the grimace, it was also the fact that Vingegaard really managed to counter an attack by Pogacar. We haven’t seen that before. What we saw there is that the climbing level of the big two is closer.”

Visma | Lease a Bike has been talking for months about the final week of the Tour de France. That makes sense, as the Alps have often tipped the balance in Vingegaard’s favor. “Pogacar is the better rider in almost every area,” Zonneveld admits. “And maybe there’s only one area where Vingegaard is better. When extreme fatigue sets in, with massive elevation and really long climbs.”

How do you crack the dominant world champion? BEAT Cycling’s sports director envisions a scenario similar to Ventoux, but not waiting until the final climb. “They want to ignite the race as early as possible. They are not going to wait for the Col de la Loze. He’s not just one minute behind, so he can’t break Pogacar on a single climb.”

The opportunity is there, also because Visma | Lease a Bike seems to have found better form compared to the first two weeks. True, Matteo Jorgenson might not be at his best, but with a strong Sepp Kuss, Vingegaard has his trusted right-hand man back. “On the Ventoux, they were better than UAE compared to the previous weeks. There, Kuss was able to set such a hard pace that only one or two UAE riders were left in the group.”

The other Killer Bees can also go on the offensive. But UAE, unlike in the Giro, will be well-prepared. “I’m curious to see if they’ll succeed in sending Van Aert, Benoot, Campenaerts, or even Affini up the road, and how UAE will respond. It’s very possible the race will go full throttle right from the start, with Wellens chasing Van Aert to prevent exactly that scenario.”