Heads up: The World Championship game plan of major countries (and why Van der Poel could be key for Van Aert)

Tactics and World Championships, it's a history in itself. Whether it's Lithuanian Raimondas Rumsas helping Latvian Romain Vainsteins in 2000, Spain's seemingly perfect series (winner four times between 1999 and 2004), Italy (2006-2008), and Julian Alaphilippe/France (2020/2021) or feuds back and forth between different leaders: there's always something to comment on.

Following an ill-timed remark from Jasper Philipsen during the Tour de France, stating "I'm not going after Mathieu van der Poel," it seemed a fresh dispute might be on the horizon. However, Belgian national coach Sven Vanthourenhout tactfully defused the situation before it could escalate. Notably, Vanthourenhout had been the mastermind behind last year's winning strategy for Evenepoel, ensuring that the eventual winner had already taken off before the biggest competitors realized it.

The (possible) reason for this? The lack of earpieces, making racing skills even more important. Last year there was a lot of complaint about this from, among others, second-place Christophe Laporte ("I didn't even know what place I was sprinting for"), Wout van Aert ("it's a disaster") and Tadej Pogacar ("it makes it strange and chaotic"). Anyway, the earpieces will not be present in 2023 either, which may make it even more interesting for the viewer.

The first country we take a closer look at is Belgium, which on paper has the strongest (and largest, thanks to Evenepoel's victory they can start with nine instead of eight) selection. National coach Sven Vanthourenhout is a man who insists that everyone stick to their role, although with the strong selection he has, he can do a bit more damage control than other nations. "It's a luxury that we can play out three different roles with three different riders," he pointed to team leaders Remco Evenepoel, Wout van Aert, and Jasper Philipsen.

Van Aert remembers from last year that it is difficult to race without earpieces and he already brought it up during the Tour. "Especially without earpieces, it will be difficult to make decisions during the race, which is difficult anyway. Therefore, it will be important to have a clear plan before the race starts. I am confident that this will work out."

What does that plan entail? That the three leaders have their own role in the finale. "For example, Philipsen should not anticipate sixty kilometers from the finish to be ahead of Evenepoel and/or Van Aert. All three must realize that if everyone sticks to their phase of the race, that could just ensure that they become world champion," Vanthourenhout told the Belgian media. "Once they step out of their role, they risk making it difficult for themselves. And to get involved in a completely different battle than planned."

Crucial factor in the race: positioning, and Vanthourenhout also knows this very well. With Tiesj Benoot and Nathan Van Hooydonck, he ensured the services of two of Jonas Vingegaard's intelligent bodyguards in the Tour de France, while Frederik Frison, Jasper Stuyven, Yves Lampaert, and Victor Campenaerts with their qualities in the classics, know where they need to be in such a World Championship scenario.

The only country that on paper can match the Belgian leaders one-on-one is the Netherlands. Dylan van Baarle versus Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel against eternal rival Van Aert, and Olav Kooij against Philipsen, that's how it could theoretically be. However, theory is of little value here, as we're talking about a 270-kilometer race on a course with 42 turns per lap, possibly in wet conditions.

So what exactly is the Dutch tactic? "We are counting on being able to position Mathieu and Dylan, but we also need to keep other options open if the race develops in a certain direction", says national coach Koos Moerenhout, who seems to indicate he wants to keep Kooij in reserve. "That doesn't mean we are automatically betting on a sprint, but Olav is a strong sprinter who is also developing towards the classics."

Nevertheless, the experienced Moerenhout, who himself made a bid for the world title in Madrid in 2005, mainly counts on his two pillars from the classics: Van der Poel and Van Baarle. "The road race is held on a fast course reminiscent of a classic. With Mathieu, we have a real finisher in the team and Dylan has also often proved to be able to perform well on a course like this. We hope to get these two riders deep into the final and then to be able to compete for the win. The other riders will basically start in a supportive role", Moerenhout explained unequivocally.

Mads Pedersen is one of the top favorites for the upcoming World Championships. The Dane has a number of strengths that could come into play on Sunday: he is extremely strong in races longer than two hundred kilometers, can cope well with cold, rainy conditions, proved in the Tour that he can beat everyone after a tough race, and like Van Aert and Van der Poel, he has a super strong selection at his disposal.

With the likes of Kasper Asgreen, Søren Kragh Andersen, Mattias Skjelmose, Mikkel Bjerg and Mikkel Honoré, the Danes have several riders who can make their mark in the pre-final, while Michael Mørkøv is also brought along for the tactical aspect. "It is absolutely crucial to be in the front, so you also need riders to position the leaders. That's Michael's core strength and it also makes him very important for our team", national coach Anders Lund told TV2.

Mørkøv himself felt honored. "We're going to Glasgow with several riders who have the qualities to win", he referred to Pedersen and Asgreen. "That makes it very special to be part of such a strong selection."

If you have Thomas Voeckler as your national coach, you can always expect a stunt. The French blew everyone away at the 2021 World Championships in Leuven with their tactics in service of Julian Alaphilippe, which they tried to repeat last year in Wollongong by breaking up the race early. Christophe Laporte still managed a nice second place, albeit a long way from winner Evenepoel.

At his announcement of the team including Alaphilippe, Laporte and Valentin Madouas, Voeckler made it clear that the French are aiming high again. "Julian will not necessarily be our leader", Voeckler stated, who saw from his motorcycle during the Tour how the former double world champion was struggling. "It's a special course, where a lot depends on how the race goes. We want to aim for the best result in any case, but we know there's a lot of competition. It's a very atypical circuit. I counted 48 turns in the local lap", said the coach.

In a conversation with L'Equipe, Voeckler talks a bit more about the role distribution in his team. Normally, the French will not wait and see. "The longer the race lasts, the harder it gets for us. If we end up in a breakaway, we won't waste more energy than when we have to squeeze in the peloton. If a strong group gets away, it can be a bloodbath for us. We must prevent not being involved in the breakaway, which would then mean chasing in the peloton. On this course, that's the last thing you want."

Italy will head to Scotland featuring racers like Matteo Trentin (who won the European Championship on a similar course in Glasgow in 2018) and Alberto Bettiol (who ranked eighth in the World Championship last year). However, the national coach, Daniele Bennati, will have to do without Filippo Ganna and Jonathan Milan due to overlapping track cycling events. "They talk about combining disciplines, but they now had to make choices," he sounded bitter in La Gazzetta dello Sport.

The years when everyone watched the Italy of Paolo Bettini, Damiano Cunego, Alessandro Ballan and Filippo Pozzato seem to be over. "It's a course for guys like Van der Poel, Pedersen and Van Aert," says Bennati. "If a group with good racers takes off, it will be very difficult to catch them back anyway."

"There are a total of 400 turns to be overcome in 270 kilometers," outlines the Italian national coach. "Everyone will have pain in their legs. The riders I have chosen are fully aware of the monumental effort required," says Bennati, priming his team for an active role.

Tadej Pogacar cannot count on the support of other top riders like Matej Mohoric, Primoz Roglic, and Jan Tratnik at the World Championships in Glasgow, which means that the UAE-Team Emirates rider seems to have to do it the "Peter Sagan way": move along with the right actions and then make the difference in the final based on class.

The Slovenian national coach Uros Murn states that his men are aiming for the best result. "The first half of the course is not as heavy as it looks on the profile. When I rode the circuit in March, I saw that the circuit was harder than the kilometers before."

"There is not a single meter that is flat in that circuit," Murn told Siol.net. "They are not big hills, but it constantly goes up and down, and there are more than forty turns in the course."

Otherwise, it seems that the other countries will not be able to contribute much to the race. The Americans were initially going to go with a strong team, but Matteo Jorgenson, Quinn Simmons and Magnus Sheffield decided to cancel. After Brandon McNulty's earlier absence, the pressure now mainly rests with Neilson Powless. The situation is similar in Spain, where national coach Pascual Momparler relies mainly on Alex Aranburu after all the withdrawals. "This course is for explosive and strong riders, and we have two of them, with Aranburu and Iván Garcia Cortina," he told AS.

The Australians have two big names in Michael Matthews and Caleb Ewan. The former has been talking about this World Championship for months and already revealed that he "could not be satisfied with anything less than gold" after earlier podium finishes, but he fell immediately in his first race in the Basque Country after a high-altitude training in Livigno. Subsequently, Matthews did not finish his first three races.

The Swiss have multiple men who can participate in the final with Marc Hirschi, Stefan Küng and Mauro Schmid, but they have not yet revealed anything about their tactics. The same applies to smaller countries like Ireland (Ben Healy), Slovakia (Peter Sagan), Norway (Alexander Kristoff), Germany (Nils Politt), Portugal (Joao Almeida), and Poland (Michal Kwiatkowski), but their tactics can often be guessed: anticipate where possible, but mainly hope that everything falls into place at the end somehow.