Vincenzo Nibali knows exactly why Tadej Pogacar never won Milano-Sanremo

Vincenzo Nibali wonders whether Tadej Pogačar will ever win Milan–San Remo, as long as the race is about more than just raw power. The retired Italian champion — who rode to victory in the Monument with a brave solo move in 2018 — knows exactly what it takes to win La Primavera.

Nibali triumphed in Milan–San Remo in 2018 by riding away on the Poggio. At that time, big groups still came to the climb together, and that day was no different. Despite a headwind on the Poggio, the then Bahrain-Merida rider managed to create a gap. After a daring descent, he held just enough advantage over the charging group. 

On that day it was not only the legs, but mostly the mind that won him the Monument. And it’s precisely that mental game where Nibali senses a difference in Pogačar. The Slovenian from UAE Team Emirates-XRG has dominated nearly every race he enters in recent years, but in Milan–San Remo he has repeatedly been outpaced.

In races like Milan–San Remo where the Cipressa and Poggio are not extremely steep, the race often requires more than raw physical output. In 2025, Mathieu van der Poel and Filippo Ganna were still able to stay with the strongest thanks to their explosive legs and race smarts. Pogačar and UAE pushed the pace for a long final effort, but even that wasn’t enough to win on the Via Roma.

“As the peloton rides now at 47 km/h instead of 42, if you want to get away you have to hit 50,” Nibali said to Bici, highlighting how much harder it has become to create decisive gaps. On climbs like the Poggio, where Pogačar likes to crank up the power, those accelerations are simply less likely to stick.

While Pogačar can make a difference uphill with sheer watts, he couldn’t do it in Milan–San Remo or Paris-Roubaix in 2025. That suggests that if Pogačar truly has a limit, it might be his belief that brute strength alone will always prevail.

According to Nibali, races with fewer metres of climbing demand other skills. “He’s used to breaking away. He wins every race through strength and power, not tactics,” Nibali explained. “He attacks because he’s stronger, but who wins races these days with a trick or tactics? Mathieu van der Poel. Mathieu is strong but also smart.”

Nibali believes that at UAE Team Emirates-XRG they might try to make Milan–San Remo even harder earlier. But he also hopes to see a Pogačar who isn’t afraid to wait and seize the right moment — a tactic that could finally deliver him a victory in cycling’s longest Monument.