Pogacar fooled Vingegaard and Visma with time trial bluff, says Danielson: "They’re still in the dark about him"

First, Vingegaard. The Dane lost 20 seconds to Evenepoel, but Danielson is impressed, as he shared on social media. “Jonas looks more muscular than he did during last year’s Tour, where he was extremely lean. He has more power now, both for long efforts and explosive bursts. He also moves less in the saddle than he used to. And he was able to start, climb, and finish with a high cadence on a course that featured so many different types of terrain. That’s really hard to do, and there’s no doubt he’s ready to race for the win in July.”

Pogacar lost nearly half a minute to his Danish rival. “If it had been anyone else, people would say: that’s actually a decent result, and there’s still a month and a half to go before the key Tour stages. But it’s Pogi, and he usually wins,” said the former domestique of Lance Armstrong. “So is there more going on here? I think so. I’m going with my gut: I think he deliberately rode at a controlled pace, almost like a training ride, knowing he’d finish behind Jonas.”

Pogacar himself admitted that his time trial was “not perfect,” but Danielson thinks it’s all part of the game. What’s that based on? He noticed that the world champion’s body language was nothing like what people are used to seeing from him. “He started off slow, maintained a much lower cadence than usual, didn’t sprint out of the corners, and didn’t push himself to the limit at the finish.”

“The other side of the story is how much Jonas and Visma are focusing on Tadej. A time trial is very easy to analyze, and if you compare Jonas’ performance to Remco’s, assuming Remco is even stronger than last year, then Jonas is right where you’d expect Tadej to be, if he were at the same level as last year. At Visma, they now have confirmation that Jonas, and Matteo (Jorgenson, ed.), have improved, but they still have no clarity on Tadej.”

Last year, Pogacar lost 12 seconds to Evenepoel in the first time trial of the Tour, but in the second one, the final stage in Nice, he left everyone in the dust, putting more than a minute into his closest rival, Vingegaard. “If Tadej were trying to win, he wouldn’t lose that much time, even from the couch,” the American explains. “If he went full gas but wasn’t fit, he’d start strong but then fade and lose time.”

Then there was another curious moment in the time trial. Pogacar took time to sip from a bottle, even though the stage was only 17.4 kilometers long. “Who brings a full bottle for a 20-kilometer time trial? He didn’t even take a gel, so why the bidon?” Danielson believes even this was part of the plan. “He’ll have to drink during the 33-kilometer time trial in the Tour, so this was a rehearsal.”

According to the American, Pogacar's performance is not limited to the time trial. "So what happens next? I’m guessing that Tadej will focus only on following Jonas. I think he won’t be interested in the GC, instead racing in a controlled and calculated way. I don’t think he’ll attack, but if he has a chance to go for the stage close to the line, we’ll see that."

Will Vingegaard or Evenepoel win the Dauphiné? Danielson suddenly sees a great opportunity for his compatriot Matteo Jorgenson, who performed excellently in the time trial. Teamwork will be crucial. "Jonas and Jorgenson can 1–2 Remco, but with Tadej potentially focused only on Jonas, we might see Jorgenson riding away from it. Remco will need to be able to follow both—and actually do it."