3 scenarios Visma | Lease a Bike and Vingegaard are planning for ahead of the monster Blockhaus stage
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Follow us on GoogleAfter stage six of the Giro d'Italia, Visma | Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard previewed Friday's stage with a broad, meaningful smile. All signs point to Vingegaard wanting to blow the race apart on Blockhaus. But at the team bus afterwards, IDL Pro Cycling also heard the other scenarios being considered.
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Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike came through all six opening stages without incident — undoubtedly the most important fact of the first week. On day two the Dane had already fired a warning shot, though he was countered on that occasion by a strong Giulio Pellizzari of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe.
A 13.6-kilometre climb averaging 8.4% will be a different proposition entirely. "It's a tough climb — and it comes at the end of an extraordinarily long stage," analysed Visma | Lease a Bike sporting director Marc Reef. "We don't often get a 37 to 38-minute climb after 235 kilometres of racing. It's a consistently steep ascent, which means this is going to be a really beautiful stage."
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Scenario 1: Vingegaard goes for the double — stage win and pink jersey
In the first — and for Visma | Lease a Bike undoubtedly the most desirable — scenario, Vingegaard hits Blockhaus so hard that he rides everyone off his wheel. He goes so fast that he not only drops his GC rivals, but takes the pink jersey from current leader Afonso Eulalio.
The 24-year-old Portuguese rider at Bahrain Victorious heads into stage seven with a lead of 6 minutes 22 seconds over Vingegaard — but Eulalio spoke before stage six in the mixed zone of having paid a real price in stage five. "I genuinely used up a lot of energy on Wednesday — including in the crash. I didn't feel much of that at the finish, but the following morning I woke up with a lot of pain."
"I hope to recover a bit, and then we'll see what we can do on Blockhaus," said the pink jersey holder — who is normally a capable climber. Should he crack on the ascent, however, the jersey could be there for the taking. "We take it as it comes. It's clearly a stage that suits Jonas, on a climb that also suits Jonas," Reef said.
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How good is Afonso Eulálio going to be in stage 7?
Scenario 2: Vingegaard takes time — but perhaps not the win
It is entirely possible that Eulalio arrives at Blockhaus in good shape — and if he does, he may not immediately concede 6 minutes 22 seconds to an unleashed Vingegaard. The Dane acknowledged as much himself before stage six, speaking to media: "Six minutes is a healthy lead, so I think he can hold the jersey for longer — even beyond Blockhaus. You don't just take six minutes back like that."
What is more, Blockhaus only comes after 235 kilometres of racing. It is quite possible that, by the time the final climb begins, a breakaway group is already up the road — one that poses no threat to Eulalio in the overall. Reef was not necessarily pushing for a full day of control from Visma | Lease a Bike. "We still have two and a half weeks to go, and this is a very long stage."
When presented with the scenario that other teams would primarily be watching Visma | Lease a Bike, a stage with prolonged cat-and-mouse racing emerged as a realistic possibility. "On the final climb and in the finale, there will be no more waiting around — but before that, of course, there might be. A lot will depend on how the day develops."
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Jonas Vingegaard
Scenario 3: Vingegaard does not yet drop all his GC rivals
Every other GC team will be hoping for this one — a scenario in which Vingegaard, despite his best efforts, fails to ride away from all of his rivals. Though, in that case, it would not necessarily be down to a lack of form. "I still feel good," Vingegaard said cheerfully on Thursday.
The Visma leader was not shy about what he was feeling. He has come through a physically brutal opening week intact. "Wednesday was a long, cold and wet day — so the most important thing is that we got through it safely. Normally I tend to cope reasonably well in difficult conditions. Others have probably suffered a little more."
"Blockhaus is a climb where you cannot hide. It will be a battle between the GC riders — and perhaps also for the stage win. That would be wonderful — though that's not only up to us, but also to the other teams," Vingegaard said, giving every impression of a man who is eager and ready.
Reef could only agree. "You saw it in stage two: if there's a chance, he'll go for it — whether that's for the stage win or not."
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Bram van der PloegEditor-in-chief
Bram van der Ploeg (35) is the proud founder of In de Leiderstrui, IDL Pro Cycling's parent site, launched in 2018. Finally, he could create stories about the sport he had followed since childhood. He is the editor-in-chief on paper, but prefers to be with his recorder next to a rider, a team bus, or in the mud at a cyclocross race. Every year, from February to the end of May, Bram follows the entire Italian cycling season, from the Trofeo Laigueglia to the Giro d'Italia, with the grand finale in October in Lombardy. During that time, he lives in Tuscany, where he has since come to call Italy his 'home'.
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