Analysts say Pogacar’s Tour puzzle still unsolved: “I think UAE has doubts, Visma looks excellent”

Pogacar won the Tour in 2024, but it wasn’t without controversy within the team. Juan Ayuso, for example, came under fire in the first week for seemingly refusing to ride in support of the team leader. A similar scenario unfolded at the Giro d’Italia in May, where Isaac Del Toro lost the pink jersey after going solo, while teammate Brandon McNulty casually focused on defending his own 9th place in the GC.

Speaking to Bici, Garzelli acknowledges UAE’s talent but believes Visma | Lease a Bike is the far stronger unit. “It’s an incredibly strong team, well organized on the flat with riders like Wout van Aert, Edoardo Affini, Tiesj Benoot, and Victor Campenaerts. And in the mountains, they’ll have Simon Yates, Sepp Kuss, and Matteo Jorgenson supporting Vingegaard. Visma is a truly excellent team. The presence of Yates will make a difference both mentally and in terms of energy and Van Aert will be in top shape.”  

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Several riders on UAE’s long list are still in contention for Tour selection. At the Critérium du Dauphiné, what may have been the intended lineup was already in action, with Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler expected to support in the mountains, and Jhonatan Narváez, Tim Wellens, and Nils Politt for the flats and everything in between. But Garzelli wasn’t entirely convinced. “Soler was one of the first to crack in the Dauphiné. I think UAE is still unsure about their final lineup.”  

Perhaps the Tour of Switzerland will provide more clarity. “What you plan on paper doesn’t always work out, things change,” Garzelli said. “Sivakov didn’t exactly stand out, so I think they’re closely watching the Tour of Switzerland. I believe Wellens, Politt, João Almeida, and Adam Yates are guaranteed to ride the Tour. I would also bring Narváez, but I’m less convinced about Domen Novak, Soler, and Sivakov. I would take Mikkel Bjerg and Jan Christen instead.”

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Whoever ends up supporting him at the Tour, one thing is certain: Pogacar will be ready. The Slovenian looked incredibly strong at the Dauphiné, raising the question of how much support other leaders will actually get from their teammates once Pogi launches an attack. “If someone can ride 480 watts for 20 minutes, how do you beat that?” Garzelli asked. “Still, I don’t think Vingegaard is that far behind. I believe he held something back. Otherwise, you don’t ride that kind of time trial on stage four,” he said, referring to the 28 seconds the Dane gained on Pogacar during the TT at the Dauphiné.

An additional factor is team harmony. Lefevere noted signs of tension within UAE during the Tour of Switzerland, when Christen attacked and Bjerg expressed disapproval. “What stands out is that these frustrations are coming out in public at UAE,” Lefevere told Het Nieuwsblad. “In our team, the rule was always: take all your race frustrations with you into the shower. Whatever hasn’t been washed away, you can speak about, but only on the team bus. Never in the media. Doing so is just unprofessional.”