Bakelants assesses Evenepoel’s Tour chances and criticizes route: "Do they really know only one climb in France?"

We start in Barcelona with a team time trial, during which the individual times (much to Richard Plugge's displeasure) will be recorded. “You could see this as an advantage for Remco, but what would have really played into his hands 100% is an individual time trial on the opening day,” Bakelants begins his analysis at HLN.

“This will benefit the competition more,” the Belgian observes. “Jonas Vingegaard, for example, will be able to limit the damage more easily than in an individual time trial. I think a team like Visma-Lease a Bike is better equipped for this. They are more attuned to each other, I think.”

In Spain, Bakelants sees opportunities for his compatriot. In stage two, for example. “The stage over Montjuich and finishing at the Olympic Stadium in Barcelona is something that should be right up Remco's alley, yes. But... then that automatically applies to Pogacar and Vingegaard as well, of course.”

“If we look one day further, we see Les Angles, a new, unprecedented finish in the universe,” Bakelants looks ahead to the first meters in the mountains. “Pretty easy,” I learned when I happened to ride a gravel race there recently. This is also Remco stuff, although there is a real chance that a larger group will fight for the stage win.”

After that, the peloton will quickly enter the Pyrenees. “That means the GC can be decided early on and the Tour could be locked up,” says the Belgian analyst. “In that sense, it’s a bit like last year’s Grand Départ in Florence.”

According to Bakelants, it is precisely in that early stage that Evenepoel has opportunities. “The strong Remco Evenepoel of the final weeks of the current season should certainly be able to play his part in this interesting part of the course. That’s what we expect of him." Nevertheless, the Belgian sees that it is mainly a course tailored to Tadej Pogacar. “Which is somewhat unfortunate.”

“The Tour organizers did not really take Evenepoel into account when designing their course and failed to make their race potentially more exciting,” says Bakelants. “To be clear, it doesn't have to be disadvantageous for Remco. But in his quest for that Tour victory, he is now confronted with a super champion who capitalizes more on climbing and slightly less on time trials.”

The time trial will take place later, in stage sixteen. ”Anyway, a 26-kilometer time trial is not very long, compared to the total number of altitude meters or race kilometers,” Bakelants notes. “Time trials are treated even more poorly than usual in this Tour. This time trial is unlikely to have much influence on the classification, as it is so close to Paris. I would call it a ‘half’ time trial.”

And so the Belgian analyst knows what he thinks is missing. “I miss an extra time trial of between forty and fifty kilometers, which could make the race more exciting. This will be an effort of around half an hour – maybe Remco will even finish it in less time: well... you won't make up much ground in the GC with that.”

Later in the third week, the grueling mountain stages follow in rapid succession. “Yes, that’s suddenly a lot,” says Bakelants. "I suspect this is compensation for the “human” passage through the Pyrenees, which won’t immediately cause too big a difference at the start."

The Belgian thinks that the route resembles ‘a lack of inspiration’, partly due to the inclusion of Alpe d'Huez twice. “Do they really only know one col in France? I don't think anyone is really looking forward to that at this stage of the Tour. Look at the final week this year: we got ‘frustrating’ – somewhat boring, predictable – stages, the excitement drained away, and not much happened in the classification.”

Bakelants would have preferred to see things done differently. “A few extra trips to the low mountains would have been better,” he suggests as an alternative. “Although Pogacar’s team is so strong that it can control things there too and doesn’t really leave Evenepoel with many attacking options. If Pogi were part of a weaker team, that number of possibilities would increase.”

So it's time to assess the situation. "Remco is a top rider. Without Tadej, he would win all the races in ‘Pogacarian’ style, but the reality is that the Slovenian is part of the peloton. It is therefore strange to note that, after a season in which few riders could challenge Pogacar, no race design offers the underdog a better chance.

“For example, by opening up a race with many more time trial kilometers,” Bakelants once again mentions an area for improvement (in his opinion). “Not that it would make Pogacar completely out of the running, but it could increase Evenepoel’s chances,” Bakelants laughs. “If Remco had been French, I think we would have had a different course.”