Contador or Van Garderen? Experts on either side of the pond on Vingegaard's Giro - Tour gamble

With several rivals having withdrawn and his spring form looking strong, Jonas Vingegaard stands alone as the clear favourite for the Giro d'Italia. The Dane is targeting overall victory in his first Giro, but for the Visma | Lease a Bike leader the race also serves as a springboard towards the Tour de France. Experts on both sides of the pond are divided on whether its a good plan or not.

Alberto Contador does not see Vingegaard losing the Giro. "Only something unexpected: a crash or illness caused by the weather, could change things," he tells Spanish sports newspaper AS. "He is a very consistent rider — we have never really seen him fall into a crisis. When he has lost, it was because Pogačar was better, not because of his own mistakes. Under normal circumstances, it is hard to imagine a very different outcome."

The Spaniard raced 18 Grand Tours in total and won nine of them, though two of those victories were subsequently stripped. He rode the Giro d'Italia three times and combined it with the Tour de France on two occasions — in 2011 and 2015. Both times, he won the Giro. Both times, he finished fifth at the Tour.

"It won't help him. Modern cycling is heavily dependent on altitude training blocks and arriving at a race fresh. The Giro is an extremely tough race, even if the average level is lower than at the Tour. Physically, it is very demanding. Whether it is an interesting or wise decision is a separate question — winning the Giro and claiming a Grand Tour victory this season is an attractive objective for the team," Contador adds, offering some perspective.

Tejay van Garderen sees it differently. The American, who retired from professional cycling in 2021, believes there is genuine merit in a new approach for Vingegaard, who has finished second to Tadej Pogačar at each of the last two Tour de France editions.

"I just think he's trying a different approach, a different build-up," he explains on the Beyond the Podium podcast. "If you try the same thing every year, you're just going to keep getting beaten by Tadej. If he wants to try something new, I applaud that."

In 2025, Vingegaard was again second behind the Slovenian. He then rode the Vuelta a España — which he won, despite falling ill. "He's probably looking back at last year, when he rode the Tour and then the Vuelta. He saw his numbers there and probably thought: 'Wow, those are better in the Vuelta than in the Tour. What if I had these legs at the Tour?'"

Van Garderen dismisses any suggestion that Vingegaard is simply trying to play it safe. "I don't see it as avoiding Pogačar, or making excuses. He has to find his best chance of success. If that means racing in an event where Pogačar isn't, so be it. And if he wins the Giro and finishes second at the Tour, who is going to say that's a failure? That's an enormous achievement, if you ask me."