Control, don't react, support: National coach Pauwels has sophisticated battle plan to beat Pogacar at the World Championships

On Monday, the Belgian federation announced its selections for the UCI Road World Championships in Rwanda, with Remco Evenepoel, unsurprisingly, named the clear team leader. To go for a second rainbow jersey, national coach Serge Pauwels revealed his carefully thought-out strategy in an interview with HLN, which we’ll break down step by step.

When the race kicks off, a big battle for the early breakaway is expected. Florian Vermeersch has a crucial role to play here. “He needs to make sure the break doesn’t get too much time. You don’t want to give anyone a 25-minute head start,” said Pauwels.

“Florian also needs to ensure that only the right riders go up the road,” the Belgian coach added. That means no big names should be allowed into the break. If that happens, Vermeersch will have to bring it back. “He needs to keep things calm,” Pauwels emphasized.

The plan is to let only Vermeersch burn himself out early on, to get as many Belgians as possible to the base of Mount Kigali. That climb, coming with around 100 kilometers to go, is the first major turning point of the day. It’s 5.9 kilometers long at an average of 6.9%, and Pauwels describes it as “a tough and steep climb.”

It also comes at a point in the race where positioning can already be decisive. “Still far from the finish, but we saw in Zürich that Pogacar isn’t afraid to attack from way out,” he said, referring to the Slovenian’s long-range move at last year’s World Championships in Zürich. Back then, the UAE star launched a powerful attack with around 100 kilometers to go and stormed to his first rainbow jersey.

That’s why the national coach is taking into account that Pogacar might try something similar again this year. “The goal is to get as many Belgians as possible over Mount Kigali. By then, Florian will have done his job, but ideally, the other seven will make it through in good shape.”

The goal is to survive the climb with as many Belgians as possible, but if Pogacar attacks, the plan changes. If that scenario plays out, Pauwels is crystal clear: no one is to react to the Slovenian, except for Remco Evenepoel and Cian Uijtdebroeks. “This is a climb that should suit Cian very well,” explains the coach.

Everyone else is instructed not to chase. “The mistake we made last year, and cannot repeat, is that we tried to close the gap to Pogacar one by one. That achieved nothing. This time, I want the guys to race as a group.”

Attack or no attack: According to Pauwels, Pogacar’s decision will shape the entire race. “Everything will depend on what Pogacar does at that moment. That’s simply the reality of racing today,” said Pauwels. Whether he attacks or not, the Slovenian’s move will set the tone for how the rest of the race unfolds. That's the reality of the race today."

If Belgium truly wants to beat Pogacar, it will likely need some allies. Denmark, for instance, looks set to bring a strong lineup alongside team leader Mattias Skjelmose.

Pauwels believes the Danes will want to take responsibility in the race, too. “I know Michael Mørkøv quite well, he’s also the U23 national coach, and I spoke to him just last week during the Tour de l’Avenir. We’ve exchanged thoughts on the Worlds a few times already. It’s never a bad idea to find an ally.”

The race finale will take place on a local circuit, where Pauwels hopes riders like Tiesj Benoot, Victor Campenaerts, and Xandro Meurisse can play a key role in supporting Evenepoel. The coach is especially complimentary of Meurisse. “A very reliable rider, in both senses of the word. I know Xandro will carry out his role with absolute commitment, and I’m counting on him still being there in the final. He rode a strong Tour, was excellent in the Clásica San Sebastián, and if he hadn’t collided with a spectator holding a phone, he would’ve finished top ten in the Bretagne Classic last weekend.”

All in all, it’s set to be a brutally tough race. “Don’t forget, Rwanda isn’t just about the climbing. Even the flat sections are at altitude. The entire 267-kilometer race is above 1,400 meters. There’s no race in Europe like it.”

"Don’t underestimate that," says Pauwels. "It will affect many riders. That altitude will have an impact on many riders’ performance,” Pauwels warns. “In our selection, we have two riders who specifically respond very well to altitude, riders who don’t break down because of it: Cian Uijtdebroeks and Ilan Van Wilder. That’s something you’re partly born with. They lose very little power at altitude. They could be real surprise factors in this race.”

In the end, everything will hinge on Evenepoel’s form. The Belgian will need to be at his very best to beat Pogacar, but Pauwels remains confident and determined. “I speak to Remco almost every day now. He’s hungry and sounding like his confident self again, just as we know him. He’s been able to make peace with the Tour, hit the reset button, and now he says he’s feeling great and full of confidence.”