Eurosport analysts predict a hard fight for Vingegaard at the Giro: 'There is still work to be done'

With the Giro d'Italia now just days away, it is time for predictions. Eurosport commentators Jeroen Vanbelleghem and Jan Hermsen gave their verdicts on the Kop over Kop podcast — and neither expects Jonas Vingegaard to have it entirely his own way.

First, the start list. Vanbelleghem is quick to identify what is missing. "We lack personalities. Last year you had Van Aert, Pedersen — real stars. Del Toro with his swagger. Carapaz as a genuine attacker. Those were riders you looked forward to watching. Riders you thought: I'm sitting down for this. You don't have that now."

The biggest name on this year's start list is Vingegaard. "He is one of the best riders in the world, and he does it in his own way, brilliantly. Top rider. But — and this is simply the reality — he lacks star power and charisma. He wins a great deal and does it excellently. But for many people — I think nine out of ten viewers — he is not the reason to switch on the television. And you feel that absence in this Giro."

Giulio Pellizzari could grow into that role, the Belgian believes. "I like him as a person and in interviews too, but he still has to grow into that kind of presence. He is not Del Toro — for now he does not have that allure or those qualities. I miss personalities in this Giro that I genuinely look forward to watching in the mountain stages. I hope we discover one," Vanbelleghem said.

Riders such as Tom Pidcock and Remco Evenepoel are skipping the Giro. "I don't know how Pidcock or Evenepoel would have challenged Vingegaard anyway," admits Hermsen — but he does not see the race as a foregone conclusion. "If Pogačar was riding instead of Vingegaard, you would spend three weeks watching how many stages he wins. With Vingegaard, I always have the feeling that other riders might think there is a possibility."

How strong was the Dane this spring, really? "In Catalonia I found him okay — solid and reliable. But in the previous Grand Tours he has won, he has also had to dig deep. In last year's Vuelta he was pushed by Almeida — no superstar in Grand Tours. We now think, 'he has already won it,' but there is still work to be done," Hermsen said.

The Dutchman actually finds that refreshing. "He is also not the kind of rider who immediately destroys everyone." On the team front, Hermsen believes Visma | Lease a Bike may face more resistance than expected. "In the Netherlands hearts will beat faster for Visma, but in other countries that is not always the case. They may run into some resistance along the way."

Vingegaard's understated persona could, paradoxically, work in his rivals' favour. "The advantage is that he is a less exciting rider — so people still think something is possible," Hermsen concludes.

And when it comes to the opposition, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe look best placed on paper, with both Pellizzari and former winner Jai Hindley in the squad. Vanbelleghem is hoping for ambition from that camp — specifically, the tactical use of numerical superiority. "I hope Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe do it. We have seen this spring that there is real friction and rivalry between Visma and Red Bull. Individually, if nothing goes wrong, Vingegaard cannot be beaten. But perhaps with your team you can force something — by sending your second leader up the road in a breakaway."

The Belgian already has a specific target in mind: the tricky fifth stage to Potenza. "Try to get someone like Hindley into a group of twenty, and see what happens. If you want to win the Giro and you are not Visma | Lease a Bike, you have to use that fifth stage to play your numbers. That, at least, is what I hope for — that many teams race to win and not just to make the podium."