'The burning-out story is not relevant for him' — Oliver Naesen expects Seixas in the top five at the Tour

Monday morning brought an end to the speculation: Paul Seixas announced that he will make his Tour de France debut this summer. Plenty of current and former riders gave their views — for and against. Belgian broadcaster Sporza put the question to his Decathlon CMA CGM teammate Oliver Naesen, who has high expectations for the young Frenchman.

The experienced Belgian had previously said he expected Seixas would ride the Tour — but that did not mean he was told in advance. "I didn't know, and I found out at the same time as everyone else." Even so, Naesen says the signs had been there for a while. "Last year I did the altitude camp ahead of the Tour with him, and he also rode the Dauphiné. So he already had a Tour build-up behind him — just without the actual Tour."

That left one remaining question, Naesen explains. "It was a matter of waiting to see how he would perform against the other top-five candidates in WorldTour stage races and one-day races — and also how he would handle that back-to-back programme." The answer, provided by a remarkable spring season, was clear.

Naesen draws his conclusion from that directly. "There is also no downside to taking him. The burning-out story is not relevant for him. Those old rules of cycling don't apply to that type of rider." He goes further still: "Right now he can still go to the Tour without pure performance pressure."

This is precisely why Naesen does not see the Vuelta a España as an attractive alternative — the option many analysts have favoured. "If he rides the Vuelta and finishes fourth, he can never go to the Tour again without that typical podium question hanging over him. If he finishes twentieth now and wins a stage, that's also a great success. That will only be possible this year."

Though Naesen does not actually expect twentieth. "I expect him to compete for the top five. He is young and somewhat impetuous. He spends energy at moments when other GC riders don't. He has to learn that the Tour is different from other races. The danger is around every corner," the veteran warns.

And then there is the added weight of French expectation. Naesen does not see that as a problem either. "It's not unhealthy, because what he himself expects is at least as high as what the public hopes for." He draws a telling comparison with his own career. "In my best years, I was hoping for a podium or a top five in the Tour of Flanders, while people were asking whether I could manage a top ten. I found that comfortable, because I knew it would be fine."

"With him it's the same — just at a dizzying level higher," Naesen concludes.