Eurosport analysts preview Saturday's Giro mountain test: 'Visma won't throw everything at it'

The Giro d'Italia is approaching the end of the second week and Saturday brings a genuine mountain stage. The GC men should brace themselves for the stage to Pila, but what can we actually expect from stage fourteen? The Eurosport analysts gave their verdict on the Dutch-language Kop over Kop podcast.

The stage is only 133 kilometres long, but with 4,350 metres of climbing it will be an extremely tough day. And when it gets that tough, Wout Poels could be the man to make moves, according to commentator Jeroen Vanbelleghem. "We might finally get a stage where Poels can be there. If the breakaway is given a chance on the day."

The road climbs steeply right from the start, and according to the Belgian commentator that works in the breakaway's favour. "The best climbers who are not riding for GC will be in the move from the off." Former rider Bobbie Traksel expects Visma | Lease a Bike to take control immediately. "They'll go straight to the front and ride an incredibly hard pace so they can't be attacked."

That would work against any breakaway hopefuls. "A group up the road won't be able to build a big lead. Visma will ride a tempo that keeps everyone on the limit — a bit like the UAE tactic," Traksel explained. That said, the Dutch outfit might not be the only team on the front.

As Vanbelleghem sees it: "Gall also wants to make up places. If Gall feels good, Decathlon will ride alongside Visma. His goal is the podium. People might think: how stupid, riding with Visma? But don't forget that Gall is focused on the podium, not on winning the stage. He's not racing against Vingegaard because he knows Vingegaard is better. When you look at it that way, they're actually racing very sensibly."

But the Belgian also acknowledges: "As a team, they are the best climbing squad in this Giro." The real question is whether Visma actually wants to go on the offensive on Saturday. "I don't think so," says Jan Hermsen. "Vingegaard would like to win, I think, but Visma won't throw everything at it," added Vanbelleghem.

The Belgian elaborated. "There will be other teams who want to make it happen. Whether Visma wins the stage is not really up to Visma. We saw that on Corno alle Scale too [stage nine, ed.], when Decathlon set it up in a way that allowed Visma to take the win. I can see the same happening again on Saturday."

Hermsen noted that Visma | Lease a Bike played it brilliantly even after that stage. "What Visma did very cleverly after winning that stage was come out and say they hadn't actually been trying to win it. That's a real gut punch for the rivals — it says: do what you want, but we'll still take the stage." Vanbelleghem's verdict: "That is the reality of this race. Try winning a stage as a GC rider right now. It's impossible."

And if the GC men can't get it done? "As far as I'm concerned, the breakaway is welcome to take the stage win. There are some great opportunities there for Dutch riders," Vanbelleghem concluded.