Favorites for stage 5 Tour de France 2023 | Will Yates leave the yellow jersey up for grabs in the Pyrenees?

When you say Pau, you say the Pyrenees. The Tour de France passes through this town almost every year - and 2023 is no different. From the starting point, we first travel about seventy kilometers through the valley, with an intermediate sprint after 48 kilometers in Lanne-en-Barétous. This phase will be particularly interesting because the battle for the early breakaway will take place here.

After seventy kilometers, the road starts to tiptoe uphill as the first major climb of this Tour de France awaits. The Col de Soudet, with its length of fifteen kilometers and average gradient of 7.2 percent, is a beyond-category ascent where sprinters and flat-loving riders will be forming an autobus to survive this rollercoaster of an ascent.

After the Soudet, we enter an intermediate phase of about forty kilometers, interrupted by the Col d'Ichere. This third-category hill isn't particularly long (just four kilometers), but it compensates for its lack of length with a generous dose of steepness (over seven percent). However, it will primarily serve as a palate cleanser because we still have to make our way from Escot over the Col de Marie Blanque.

This final stretch, which begins 25 kilometers from the finish line, can truly be called a "pain in the ass." The first three kilometers are relatively flat, but after that, it gets steeper and steeper. In the last four kilometers of the climb, the gradient barely drops below ten percent, so without a doubt, some riders will hit a wall here and encounter a rough patch.

The Marie Blanque is followed by a short plateau, before we descend towards Bielle via a technical stretch of road. From the village of Bielle, we face a gentle seven-kilometer uphill battle to the finish line in Lauruns. In 2020, we already witnessed an identical stage in the Tour de France, where Tadej Pogacar emerged victorious in a sprint against Primoz Roglic, Marc Hirschi, Egan Bernal and Mikel Landa.

Start: 1:25 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:21 p.m.

It seems highly likely that the riders will experience some rain during the final stretch on Wednesday. The wind will also pick up slightly from the northwest, meaning it will be at the riders' backs for the majority of the finale.

The early breakaway hasn't had much of a chance in the first four days, but in spite of the challenging course, they might finally get some room to maneuver in stage five. UAE-Team Emirates, the current yellow jersey holder after four days, would probably prefer to relinquish the lead, and we don't expect a strong push from teams like Jumbo-Visma in this stage either. The Dutch team seems more likely to lose bonus seconds. Additionally, the finish is downhill, which often favors earlier attackers.

So, who can we expect to shine in this stage? Neilson Powless, representing EF Education-EasyPost, will certainly be eager to defend his polka dot jersey. His compatriot Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) has been riding at the back for a few days, but he - along with riders such as Ruben Guerreiro and Antonio Pedrero - possesses the climbing abilities to finish off such a task. It's no coincidence that these are also the two teams that lost their team leaders in Richard Carapaz and Enric Mas.

Climbers like Steff Cras (TotalEnergies), Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën Team, good in the rain) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) are still in a relatively good position in the general classification and could make a bid for the yellow jersey here, so we'll also include them as potential escape artists. Or how about Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step) - or even Wout van Aert?

A bit further down, we have riders such as Daniel Felipe Martínez (INEOS), Esteban Chaves (EF Education-EasyPost), Warren Barguil (Arkéa Samsic), Rui Costa, Georg Zimmermann (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious) and Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan Team) - all of these men are strong climbers who, if in good form, will have marked this stage on their calendars with an exclamation mark or two.

Four paragraphs about scenario one, how many do we need for scenario two? That's when, just like in 2020, we'll likely see the big names crossing the finish line first, with Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) having the upper hand thanks to his strong sprint. Yates mentioned after the stage that the Slovenian is keen on bonus seconds, but Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) certainly won't let him out of his sight.

How far can Victor Lafay (Cofidis) go in this stage - that's something he probably doesn't even know himself. Adam (UAE) and Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla) should also be able to handle this stage again, as will Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Mattias Skjelmose, Giulio Ciccone (both Lidl-Trek), Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao (both Bahrain Victorious), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Carlos Rodríguez and Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers). On the other hand, riders such as Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich) and Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën) did lose some time, so for them, it will mainly be a matter of showing improvement.

Top favorites: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën Team), Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), Ruben Guerreiro (Movistar) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
Longshots: Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Rui Costa (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla)