Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 2 preview | In a potentially wet finale, the scenarios are almost endless

Let's accept that the Giro d'Italia has started outside Italy for yet another time in recent years — and embrace the fact that a compelling route can be drawn up in Bulgaria too. After Friday's crash-disrupted sprint on day one, stage 2 already serves up some climbing, and the finale in particular promises to be a fascinating spectacle.

Saturday's stage starts where the riders finished a day earlier, in Burgas. But where they arrived after 147 kilometres, stage 2 asks for no fewer than 221 kilometres. The race leaves the Black Sea and the coastal strip behind, heading inland in a westerly direction.

Over predominantly flat roads, the riders will reach Sliven after just over 100 kilometres. An intermediate sprint is located here, after which the first climb of the day immediately rears up. The Byala Pass is 7.7 kilometres long at an average of 4.6 per cent, with the opening section being the toughest.

After a short descent, the Vratnik Pass arrives straight away as the day's second climb. It starts gently, but this 9.1-kilometre ascent at an average of 4.1 per cent has a more testing final section. From the summit there are still 87 kilometres to the finish, mostly downhill — though a number of undulations remain in the route.

It's then full gas towards the final climb, where the real racing will ignite. That is the Luaskovets Pass: 3.9 kilometres at 6.8 per cent. The middle section is the hardest, featuring a stretch at 14 per cent. Towards the summit the gradient does ease off, which brings those percentages down.

After the top of the climb — situated just under 10 kilometres from the finish — it's descent all the way into the finale. A sharp right-hand bend with just under 4 kilometres to go signals the beginning of the run-in. After a long left-hand sweep, the riders hit a short cobbled section, after which the road kicks upward again at 2 kilometres from the line.

With a steepest gradient of 9 per cent, that's a serious effort — made harder still by the cobbles running through it. Inside the final kilometre it flattens out, followed by two left-hand kinks in the road. From around 500 metres to go there is no more climbing, and that final straight is dead straight.

Times
Start: 12:05 p.m. (11:05 a.m. CET)
Finish: 5:14 p.m. (4:14 p.m. CET)

Watch out: rain is forecast at the finish! It could make the descent off the final climb significantly more treacherous. Wind will not be a factor on Saturday. Temperatures will reach around 18°C, with the sun unlikely to break through the cloud cover.

Stage 2 opens up opportunities for a wide range of riders — with the biggest question being: how hard will it be raced? Let's start with the heaviest scenario and assume that several teams will try to drop the pure sprinters in favour of a strong climbing puncheur. In that case, Lidl-Trek are in a position of luxury.

The team can go full gas and try to set up Giulio Ciccone in pole position with his explosive finishing speed. Alternatively, they could control the race, not push it to the limit and hope that Jonathan Milan survives. Scenario A looks most realistic — Ciccone will be desperate for the pink jersey too.

If the final climb is raced at full tilt, Ciccone can expect competition from other strong puncheurs: the explosive Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jan Christen (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), and also Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Egan Bernal (Netcompany-INEOS) have both been showing faster finishing speed in recent months. And what about Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana) and Wout Poels (Unibet Rose Rockets)?

If climbers with punch want a real chance, they will first need to shed the powerful riders who can handle a climb at over 6 per cent average with a bit of chaos thrown in over cobbles. Jhonatan Narváez could win here for UAE — just as he grabbed the pink jersey on day one in 2024. In the same bracket, Andrea Vendrame (Team Jayco AlUla) and Corbin Strong (NSN) are dangerous customers.

Other riders can also handle such a finale and have genuine speed. Michael Valgren is hunting a stage win for EF Education-EasyPost, and at Tudor, Florian Stork is perfectly built for finishes like this. Beyond Christen and Narváez, UAE could also look to António Morgado — and what might the veteran campaigner Diego Ulissi do for XDS Astana?

And then there is the scenario where it is not raced flat out, or where things go quiet after that final climb with 10 kilometres remaining... Which pure sprinters would not be too far back? Could some of them even still be there? In the Giro there are many who climb more than decently. Alongside Milan, those include Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech).

But other sprinters could spring a surprise too. Orluis Aular had a superb Giro for Movistar on exactly these kinds of finishes last year. On a top day, we can also expect great things from Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché), Ben Turner (Netcompany-INEOS) and Ethan Vernon (NSN). The Rockets will dream of a scenario that suits Lukas Kubis.

Top favorites: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Emirates-XRG)
Outsiders: Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla), Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana), Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots:Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché), Ben Turner, Egan Bernal (both Netcompany INEOS), Corbin Strong, Ethan Vernon (both NSN),Lukas Kubis, Wout Poels (both Unibet Rose Rockets), Jan Christen, Antonio Morgado (both UAE Emirates-XRG), Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost) and Florian Stork (Tudor)