Is there a more beautiful jersey in cycling than the pink one? Tadej Pogacar must have thought the same thing, as after winning two yellow jerseys in the Tour de France, the Slovenian is finally making his debut in the Giro d'Italia this year. The top favorite? Absolutely. But in the Tour of Italy, it’s not always the favorite who wins. IDLProCycling.com lists the top ten contenders for the overall victory!
Please also read/coming soon on IDLProCycling.com:
- Preview of the Giro d'Italia
- Favorites for the points classification (purple jersey)
- Favorites for the mountain classification (blue jersey)
- Favorites for the youth classification (white jersey)
- Betting pool tips for the Giro d'Italia
Recent winners of the Giro d'Italia
2023 - Primoz Roglic
2022 - Jai Hindley
2021 - Egan Bernal
2020 - Tao Geoghegan Hart
2019 - Richard Carapaz
2018 - Chris Froome
2017 - Tom Dumoulin
2016 - Vincenzo Nibali
2015 - Alberto Contador
2014 - Nairo Quintana
Favorites for the General Classification of the Giro d'Italia 2024
To compile this list, (former) editors at IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in response to the question: "Who is most likely to win the Giro d'Italia?" Each top ten was assigned points as follows: 12 points for first place, 10 for second place, and then 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point respectively. For each rider, the total points received were converted into a percentage of the maximum points possible. This percentage is indicated next to each rider. This helps give a clearer view of how the odds stack up according to IDLProCycling.com!
Antonio Tiberi/Juan Pedro López - Bahrain Victorious/Lidl-Trek: 17/108 points (15.7%)
We start off with a tie in the rankings. Antonio Tiberi appeared seven times on our lists, but often in the ninth or tenth spot. The 22-year-old Italian will chase a classification for the first time in a grand tour for Bahrain Victorious, and why would he not be able to surprise everyone? His third place in the Tour of the Alps was impressive. Top five is his goal, but with us, he just has to make do with narrowly making the top ten.
The same applies to Juan Pedro López, the winner of the Tour of the Alps and a former wearer of the pink jersey for several days. Representing Lidl-Trek, the 26-year-old Spaniard seems to have carte blanche to try again. His stage win in the Alps—where he dramatically dropped everyone—promises much. The problem for him are the time trial kilometers, so he must go on the offensive in his beloved mountains for a top ranking.
Damiano Caruso - Bahrain Victorious: 18/108 points (16.7%)
At number nine, we find Damiano Caruso, Tiberi's teammate at Bahrain Victorious and, of course, the runner-up of the 2021 Giro! That same year, he also won a stage in the Vuelta. However, the Tour de France in 2022 and 2023 didn't go as well for him.
Can he do it again at the age of 36? Or will it be more about chasing stage wins and supporting the new generation? His results in 2024 haven't been very spectacular, but neither were they before his second place in 2021. Caruso is tough, never count him out!
Luke Plapp - Jayco-AlUla: 18/108 points (16.7%)
Scoring the same as Caruso but placed a spot higher, Luke Plapp has caught the attention of several editors who believe he could be this Giro’s surprise package. One even placed him third! Why? Plapp finished sixth in Paris-Nice and seems to be climbing better than ever. Moreover, the Australian from Jayco-AlUla is an outstanding time trialist.
His switch from INEOS Grenadiers to Jayco is paying off, although he recently mentioned that the team's focus for the classification is on Eddie Dunbar. The Irishman isn't on our list, but Plapp is. He’s poised to surprise us. The Giro has often been a platform for riders to come into their own. Maybe this is the moment for the 23-year-old Plapp.
Daniel Felipe Martínez - BORA-hansgrohe: 39/108 points (36.1%)
Another man who, after a surprising departure from INEOS, has been tearing up the streets is Daniel Felipe Martinez. He beat Remco Evenepoel twice (!) in explosive finishes at the Tour of the Algarve. And let’s not forget his role as a domestique for the overall winner Egan Bernal in 2021, where he finished fifth in the Giro.
At BORA-hansgrohe, this year is all about the Tour de France. They are sending Primoz Roglic, Jai Hindley, and Aleksandr Vlasov to focus on it. This gives Martinez free rein to fully explore his potential as a GC contender. If he's really on point, he can compete with the best. He has, after all, also won the GC in the Dauphiné and the Tour of the Basque Country in his career.
Cian Uijtdebroeks - Visma | Lease a Bike: 46/108 points (42.6%)
At Visma | Lease a Bike, since December, they have had one goal: to make a splash in the Giro! Despite losing Wout van Aert and Wilco Kelderman to injuries, there remains more than enough quality to compete for stage wins every day. Olav Kooij, Jan Tratnik, Attila Valter... Impressive, to say the least.
One rider who consistently sneaks under the radar is Cian Uijtdebroeks. The young Belgian's switch from BORA to Visma last winter has been much discussed, and the Giro might shed light on whether this move was beneficial. Considering his eighth-place finish in a competitive Vuelta in 2023, he’s expected to perform even better in this Giro... We're eager to see what he does!
Thymen Arensman - INEOS Grenadiers: 54/108 points (50.0%)
Thymen Arensman is the first and only Dutchman on this list (most of our editors are Dutch), but he's no ordinary competitor. Born to race for the GC, Arensman might not typically finish in the top three of explosive finales, but he consistently secured a strong top ten spot in both the 2022 Vuelta and 2023 Giro.
Having finished sixth twice in a grand tour, he's aiming higher now. Let’s say at least top five. Geraint Thomas is the declared leader at INEOS Grenadiers, but the 24-year-old Arensman is a dangerous dark horse. After finishing fifth in the Algarve and sixth in the Tirreno, and with a year at INEOS under his belt, it's time for him to harvest the fruits of his labor.
Ben O'Connor - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale: 61/108 points (56.5%)
We're slowly moving towards the podium, but according to our editorial team, it might just be out of reach for Ben O'Connor. Nonetheless, the Australian from Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale is having an excellent season. There's no reason to believe he can't continue this form into the Giro.
The 28-year-old O'Connor is rock solid in the mountains and has improved significantly in time trials over the past few years. He won a stage in the 2020 Giro and followed up a year later with a stage win and an eighth-place finish in the final classification in the Tour de France. 2023 was marred by crashes and injuries, but in 2024, O'Connor has already impressed with a second-place finish in the UAE Tour and the Tour of the Alps, and fifth in the Tirreno.
Romain Bardet - Team dsm-firmenich PostNL: 68/108 points (63%)
Romain Bardet in the best form of his life? At Liège-Bastogne-Liège, he finished second with impressive form, after placing fifth at the Tour of the Alps. Watching a good Bardet race is a delight. And who knows what he might achieve in the GC if dsm-firmenich PostNL fully commits.
And why not? The time trials won't be easy for Bardet, but the Frenchman has greatly improved in this discipline and also has plenty of mountain stages and bonus sprints to compensate. After his second and third places in the Tour in '16 and '17, we'd love to see him on the podium again. However, it won't be handed to him on a silver platter!
Geraint Thomas - INEOS Grenadiers: 73/108 points (67.6%)
As previously noted, Geraint Thomas is the leader at INEOS Grenadiers, but it's always tough to fully gauge the Welshman. After his Tour de France victory in 2018, his career seemed to wane, but in recent years, he's rediscovered his top form. He finished third behind Pogacar and Vingegaard in the 2022 Tour and was the runner-up to Roglic in last year's Giro.
INEOS wants to race aggressively, whatever that may mean. Thomas on the attack? We've rarely seen that. He's mainly a model of consistency. Never really having a bad day, always finishing among the leaders. And in this way, we might see him on the podium again in Rome.
Tadej Pogacar - UAE-Team Emirates: 108/108 points (100%)
Whether any of the ten names mentioned can dream of overall victory will largely depend on one rider. Tadej Pogacar is the man to beat, the rider who stands out when everyone else is performing at their usual level. And this season, the Slovenian from UAE-Team Emirates is at his best...
He clinched a victory at Strade Bianche after an epic eighty-kilometer solo break, secured four (!) stage victories and the overall win in Catalonia, and topped it off with a win at Liège-Bastenaken-Liège following another bold solo effort from La Redoute. With a strong team backing him at UAE, if Pogacar stays healthy for three weeks, everything points to him dominating. However, the Giro still has to be raced, particularly with Pogacar also eyeing a win at the Tour de France this summer...
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