Favorites polka dot jersey in 2023 Vuelta a España: Who will challenge Jumbo-Visma boys in battle for blue polka dots?

Over the years, the color scheme of the mountain classification jersey in the Vuelta has undergone various changes. From its introduction in 1935 until 2005, the jersey was green, followed by an orange variation between 2006 and 2009. The polka dots made their appearance in 2010, taking inspiration from "La Grande Boucle" (Tour de France). While David Moncoutié notably dominated the jersey, clinching it for four consecutive years from 2008 to 2011, José Laguía holds the record with five victories.

Will the jersey be won by a general classification contender or a daring attacker? Notably, recent years have witnessed pure attackers sporting the polka dot jersey on the final podium in Madrid. For instance, in 2022, Richard Carapaz chose to redirect his focus from the red jersey and instead chase stage victories and the polka dot prize. The Ecuadorian executed this strategy brilliantly, securing three stage wins along with the mountain classification. In preceding editions, the likes of Michael Storer, aggressive rider Guillaume Martin, Geoffrey Bouchard, and breakaway specialist Thomas De Gendt claimed the coveted honors. However, the 2023 edition sees a remarkably strong field of classification contenders, suggesting that a general classification leader should be more seriously considered as the winner of the mountain classification.

Please also/near IDLProCycling.com:
Preview Vuelta a España 2023
Favorites red jersey Vuelta a España 2023
Wednesday, Aug. 23: Green jersey (points classification)
Wednesday, Aug. 23: Pool tips
Thursday, Aug. 24: White jersey (youth classification)
Thursday, Aug. 24: Dutchmen in the Vuelta  

2022 Richard Carapaz
2021 Michael Storer
2020 Guillaume Martin
2019 Geoffrey Bouchard
2018 Thomas De Gendt
2017 Davide Villella
2016 Omar Fraile
2015 Omar Fraile
2014 Luis Leon Sanchez
2013 Nicolas Edet

In terms of point scoring, not much has changed in comparison to 2022. Just like last year, there are still four distinct categories of climbs, which include outer category, first category, second category, and third category climbs (the fourth category is not present in the Vuelta). Naturally, the more challenging the ascent, the higher the points available for the taking.

Climb outer category
First six riders (20, 15, 10, 6, 4 and 2 points)

Climb first category
First five riders (10, 6, 4, 2 and 1 point)

Climb second category
First three riders (5, 3 and 1 point)

Climb third category
First three riders (3, 2 and 1 point)

We begin this list of favorites with Filippo Zana. The Italian from Jayco AlUla made a significant mark on his 2023 Giro d'Italia campaign with an impressive stage victory. Throughout the Tour of Italy, the 24-year-old climber showcased his attacking prowess on multiple occasions, and it's expected that this trend will continue in the upcoming Vuelta.

While supporting leader Eddie Dunbar in his pursuit of a strong overall classification will likely be part of Zana's responsibilities, it doesn't mean he won't have the freedom to launch his own attacks. Zana's form is also in excellent shape, as demonstrated by his victory in the general classification of the Tour of Slovenia in mid-June.

Wout Poels stood out in the most recent Tour de France with a triumphant victory on the stage to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc. The 35-year-old Dutchman from Bahrain Victorious has also been included in the lineup for the upcoming Tour of Spain. In this race, the Middle Eastern team will primarily focus on Mikel Landa and Santiago Buitrago as their classification contenders, with Poels playing a supporting role, among others.

Despite Poels' notable role as a domestique, we have high expectations for him, given the boost in his confidence. The slender climber will undoubtedly contribute to the team's efforts, but it won't be surprising if Poels unexpectedly becomes a contender in the battle for the mountain classification.

Giro revelation Eddie Dunbar has indicated in several interviews that he is fully committed to pursuing a strong overall classification in the Vuelta. However, there's always a genuine possibility that a classification contender like Dunbar might see his aspirations dashed, leading him to shift his focus towards stage victories and/or the mountain jersey, similar to Carapaz's approach in 2022.

Should Dunbar encounter any obstacles that hinder his general classification ambitions, his attitude and characteristics align perfectly with the profile of a rider who would target the mountain jersey. The Irishman, who recently secured a seventh-place finish in the Tour of Poland, certainly possesses impressive climbing abilities.

What will Mikel Landa achieve in this Vuelta a España? According to his main sponsor Bahrain Victorious, he is the unequivocal leader for the general classification. When the road points upwards, the 33-year-old Basque rider is truly captivating to watch, showcasing a riding style reminiscent of Marco Pantani's attitude.

However, Landa's performances this year have been rather varied. He had a strong start to the season, securing second and third place finishes in the Tour of the Basque Country and the Flèche Wallonne, respectively. Given his impressive form, expectations were high for Landa in the recent Tour de France. Unfortunately, he fell short of these expectations and struggled throughout the race. As he prepares to move to Soudal Quick-Step next year, Landa's lackluster showing in the Tour de France has raised questions about his current form. Will he be able to rebound in his home country and contend for a solid overall classification, or will he opt to pursue the polka dot jersey quietly? Only time will reveal his strategy. Despite recent challenges, Landa's intrinsic climbing abilities undoubtedly place him among the potential contenders for the polka dot jersey in this Vuelta.

Speaking of hard-to-assess riders, Jay Vine falls into that category. The Australian cyclist from UAE Team Emirates swiftly established himself as a formidable climber through his performances on Zwift, yet he's also known to have his fair share of off-days. A case in point was the 2023 Giro d'Italia, where he was holding a respectable position in the general classification until a challenging day on the road disrupted his momentum.

Similar to his role in the Giro, Vine enters the Vuelta as a co-leader alongside Joao Almeida for the three-week race. Notably, Juan Ayuso also represents the Middle Eastern team in the Vuelta. Although Vine was introduced as a skilled domestique during the race presentation, given his character, he may not be inclined to selflessly work for others. This aspect only heightens the rationale for including one of the world's top climbers in the list of favorites for the mountain classification!

Remco Evenepoel will be vying for a consecutive victory in the Vuelta a España in Spain. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that the "Cannibal of Schepdaal," who recently secured the title of world time trial champion, will be setting his sights on the mountain classification. However, as mentioned earlier, it's not out of the realm of possibility for a contender for the overall classification to also claim the mountain jersey. In such a scenario, Patrick Lefevere's 23-year-old protégé should certainly be considered among the potential candidates.

Evenepoel's form is currently in excellent shape. While he was unable to defend his world championship title in the road race, he did secure victory in the Clasica San Sebastián for the third time just prior to that. Missing out on the Giro d'Italia due to a bout of COVID-19, the former footballer is undoubtedly motivated for redemption. Although winning the polka dot jersey may not be his primary objective, a strong placement in the secondary classification is certainly well within reach.

Santiago Buitrago plays the role of the shadow leader at Bahrain Victorious, with Mikel Landa holding a slightly higher position in the team's hierarchy. This makes it all the more reasonable for the Colombian rider to pursue his individual success, focusing on securing stage wins and aiming for the mountain classification.

As a phenomenal climber, Buitrago is currently in excellent form. He demonstrated his capabilities in the Tour of Burgos, which is considered a crucial preparation race for the Vuelta. Buitrago consistently positioned himself at the front of the pack during the race. With his potential and form, Buitrago could very well spring a surprise and make a notable impact. In fact, he might even contend for the mountain classification title.

As previously mentioned, there appears to be a significant likelihood of a classification rider securing the polka dot jersey on the final podium in Madrid. And when we talk about classification riders in the context of the Vuelta, Primoz Roglic inevitably comes to mind. The Slovenian cyclist from Jumbo-Visma has already triumphed in the Vuelta three times (in 2019, 2020, and 2021), and he eagerly aims to secure a fourth victory.

Roglic is currently in excellent form, as evidenced by his recent comfortable victory in the Tour of Burgos. In his victory in the 2021 Vuelta, he also managed to secure a third-place finish in the mountain classification battle. Therefore, this year, he remains a significant contender for the title, especially considering the statement from team director Marc Reef, who asserted that "Roglic has undergone his most impressive preparation yet." This assertion speaks volumes, doesn't it?

Jonas Vingegaard pulled off an impressive victory in the Tour de France for the second time in a row. Shortly thereafter, the 26-year-old Danish cyclist announced his participation in the Vuelta, aiming for a potential double triumph.

Vingegaard's prowess both against the clock and on uphill terrain has propelled him to the top of our favorites list for the red jersey. Consequently, he emerges as a formidable contender to clinch the polka dot jersey as well, whether intentionally or inadvertently. With numerous opportunities to accumulate mountain points and several uphill battles anticipated among the classification riders, Vingegaard stands a good chance of amassing sufficient points to claim the white jersey adorned with blue dots. This is reinforced by his recent Tour victory, where he secured a commendable third place in the mountain classification...

It might come as a bit of a surprise, but Romain Bardet remains a prominent top favorite. Described by his Team DSM as a dedicated stage raider, this Frenchman is known for his knack for launching attacks during races. These attackers typically seek to accumulate points through breakaways and Bardet is no exception.

Bardet has been having a strong year. Following a series of respectable finishes in one-week stage races (including Paris-Nice, the Tour de Romandie, and the Tour of Switzerland), he appeared poised for a standout performance in "his" Tour de France. However, his fortunes took a downturn for the affable Bardet, as he was forced to withdraw due to a concussion on stage 14. Bardet is no stranger to winning a mountain jersey in a grand tour; he secured the polka dot jersey in the 2019 "La Grande Boucle." The (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com believe that Bardet would relish the opportunity to replicate his polka-dot achievement, this time in the company of his fellow southern neighbors!