Favorites stage 1 Paris-Nice 2026 | Fast men sense their chance, but what if the favourites blow the race apart?

Who still remembers that one Paris-Nice stage from 2022? It was the opening day, when Jumbo-Visma put on a real show and Christophe Laporte took his first win in yellow after a hard uphill finish. The first stage of the 2026 edition looks remarkably similar, although on paper this one is slightly tougher. Could things already explode here?

The riders immediately have 1,800 metres of climbing to deal with. The opening phase from Achères is already rolling, but the real difficulty comes later in the stage. It is never truly flat, yet there are no categorised climbs in the first half of the race. The first of those only comes after 107 kilometres, with the Côte de Gargenville. That is the beginning of a tricky finale.

After the Côte de Vaux-sur-Seine, the race enters a local circuit around Carrières-sous-Poissy. There, the riders must tackle the Côte de Chanteloup-les-Vignes twice, a climb of 1.1 kilometres at 8.3 percent. Short, but undeniably steep. The toughest ramps rise to 12 percent. The top of the final ascent comes with 11 kilometres still to race. Is that too far out for an attack? We are about to find out.

Times
Start: 1:10 PM
Finish: approx. 5:15 PM

It should be a lovely spring day in France. Temperatures are expected to sit around 17 degrees Celsius, with a light south-easterly breeze. Conditions may be a little hazy early on, but the sun is forecast to break through as the day goes on.

It is a little difficult to predict exactly who will get the chance to fight for victory in a stage like this. Normally, you would start by writing down the puncheurs, but if the general classification riders get ambitious, then Jonas Vingegaard and Juan Ayuso immediately become names to watch. Both are riders who can thrive on shorter climbs as well.

If the stage proves slightly more selective and tilts toward the climber types, then keep an eye on Kévin Vauquelin, Oscar Onley (INEOS Grenadiers) and Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) too. Behind them are several opportunists who could benefit from the right moment: Iván Romeo (Movistar), for instance, as well as Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek).

Still, our main focus is on the faster finishers with enough punch to survive the climbs and still deliver a strong sprint. Rick Pluimers (Tudor) is one of them, as he will hope to make up for a disastrous Opening Weekend. Fellow Dutchman Marijn van den Berg (EF Education-EasyPost) should also be capable of handling this finish, as should Orluis Aular (Movistar).

Dorian Godon (INEOS Grenadiers) is the French national champion and will be hoping to take his first win for his new team. Mathias Vacek could also finish it off for Lidl-Trek, while Riley Sheehan appears to be NSN Cycling’s best card here: for Biniam Girmay, this stage looks a little too hard. Other contenders include Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike), Fabio Christen (Q36.5) and Luke Lamperti (Soudal Quick-Step).

Top favorites: Dorian Godon (INEOS Grenadiers) and Rick Pluimers (Tudor)
Outsiders: Marijn van den Berg (EF Education - EasyPost), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike), Orluis Aular (Movistar) and Kévin Vauquelin (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), Oscar Onley (INEOS Grenadiers), Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), Iván Romeo (Movistar), Riley Sheehan (NSN Cycling), Fabio Christen (Q36.5) and Luke Lamperti (EF Education - EasyPost)