Favorites stage 11 Tour de France 2023 | By now, even the strongest riders are feeling the toll of ten days in the Tour

We start in Clérmont-Ferrand, the hometown of Soudal Quick-Step rider Rémi Cavagna. The riders have spent the past few nights in the same hotel near this town, which is always a nice touch for the teams. But now it's time to move on again - this time, in the direction of Moulins.

The profile of the eleventh stage points toward one scenario: a sprint. The first 25 kilometers are flat, followed by a short hilly phase with the climbs of Cote de Chaptuzat-Haut (1.9 km at 5 percent) and Cote du Mercurol (2.9 km at 4.6 percent).

However, after the intermediate sprint in Lapeyrouse, at the 70-kilometer mark, the stage remains mostly flat until the finish. Two kilometers before the finish, we cross the Allier River, then make a right turn.

Between the penultimate and final thousand meters, there are two nasty turns in a relatively narrow passage, followed by a straight final kilometer on a nice wide road. It promises to be an exciting finish for the sprinters!

Times
Start: 1:25 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:19 p.m.

The past few days have been extremely hot in the Tour de France, but that is about to change on Tuesday. The temperature is expected to drop by about 10 degrees in one day, with Wednesday's temperatures between Clérmont-Ferrand and Moulins reaching around 26 degrees Celsius. The wind is not too strong, and there doesn't seem to be much rainfall in the afternoon.

After the grueling test the riders had to overcome during Tuesday's stage, Wednesday is typically the day for the fast men. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is without a doubt the most likely man competing for that top spot: the Belgian climbs well, sprints well, can handle the heat, has a strong lead-out and still looks cool (or should we say, good?). The clear number one top favorite!

Dylan Groenewegen and his Jayco AlUla train have entered the second week without a stage win, and that will gradually start to bother them. The stage to Moulins seems like a perfect opportunity for the Dutchman to get his victory counter rolling. However, the challenge remains formidable as Philipsen will be difficult to beat, especially with his seven-man support.

Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny) and Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal Quick-Step) had a very tough Tuesday for different reasons, so we look at them with a slightly bigger question mark. That's not the case for Mads Pedersen, the strong Danish powerhouse of Lidl-Trek. He defeated the yellow jersey sprinters on an uphill finish in Limoges, but can he repeat that feat?

Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) also managed to make his mark in the early sprints of this Tour, but by now, he will likely start feeling the strain of riding his first Tour. The same goes for fellow fast men like Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) and Sam Welsford (DSM-Firmenich), who, after eleven days, might begin to sense the difference during these power sprints that they normally excel in.

Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma, or perhaps Christophe Laporte?) and Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) can certainly handle the consecutive days, just like seasoned veterans Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies) and Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X). For them, the question is more about possessing pure speed. Finally, we have a few outsiders on our list, including Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X), Luca Mozzato (Arkéa Samsic) and Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech).

Top favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders:Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny) and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) 
Longshots: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Sam Welsford (DSM-Firmenich) and Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal Quick-Step)