Favorites stage 12 Giro d'Italia 2025 | A sprint finish, sure, but first the all-important sprint before the sprint. Right?

The riders roll out from Modena, a city we last saw as a Giro d’Italia stage finish back in 2019. The winner that day? Arnaud Démare in a bunch sprint. A sign of what’s to come in stage 12 of the 2025 Giro?

Out of Modena, the road drags slightly uphill for the first eleven kilometers, though in the second week of a Grand Tour, the peloton likely won’t notice much. What they will feel is the first categorized climb of the day. After 35 kilometers, the Baiso climb kicks in with 4.8 kilometers at an average gradient of 6.0 percent.

For the pure sprinters in the bunch, the hope will be that a breakaway of two to four riders has already gone clear by the time the race hits the Baiso climb. If the stronger climbers start pushing from that point, it could quickly turn into a rough day for the fast men. Especially with the next sixty kilometers offering little in terms of recovery.

After tackling the Borsea climb (3.9 km at 5.5%), the peloton heads downhill before the final 70 kilometers flatten out completely. Just under 30 kilometers from the line, the riders pass through Viadana for the first time, right after the Red Bull kilometer, before taking on a local finishing circuit.

That lap will be crucial, as the finale is anything but straightforward. Naturally, all eyes are on the finish line, but the sprinters would do well to focus on the final corner too.

That sharp left-hander, taken via a roundabout, comes just 400 meters from the line. If you’re not near the front by then, you’re likely out of the picture. Expect that detail to be drilled into the riders during the team briefings.

Climbs
40.5 km: Baiso (4.8 km a 6.0%)
96.1 km: Borsea (3.9 km a 5.5%)

Times
Start: 1:25 p.m.
Finish: around 5:15 p.m.

It’s on a knife’s edge, but several weather forecasts suggest rain could hit during the final of stage 12 on Thursday. Aside from that, conditions look fairly pleasant with temperatures around 22 degrees Celsius and a moderate westerly wind.

Everyone had to dig deep on Wednesday, and that includes the sprinters. Even the powerhouse riders felt the effort, though some coped better than others. While certain fast men can safely cruise in with the gruppetto, others are left battling the time cut.

Kaden Groves of Alpecin-Deceuninck fits firmly into that first category. The Australian handles the climbs well and could use that to his advantage in the second week of the Giro. In the last two sprint stages he contested, Groves showed up early and looked sharp.

Olav Kooij, riding for Visma | Lease a Bike, is still chasing that elusive stage win. Though Wout van Aert already delivered a victory for the Dutch team, Kooij came close but was hindered in the last bunch sprint by Matteo Moschetti of Q36.5. He’ll be eager to set the record straight and get his Giro win on Thursday.

Mads Pedersen already has three stage wins to his name for Lidl-Trek, putting him firmly in control of the points classification. The Dane skipped the last flat sprint, but he’s expected to be back in the mix this time. Whether Lidl-Trek decides to make the hilly midsection harder with riders like Mathias Vacek and Daan Hoole remains to be seen. One thing’s clear: Pedersen showed again on Wednesday just how well he climbs.

Casper van Uden (Picnic PostNL) already grabbed one of the few sprints this Giro had to offer, making his race a success no matter what. But there are still plenty of fast men chasing their moment. Think Milan Fretin (Cofidis), Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R), Gerben Thijssen (Intermarché-Wanty), Maikel Zijlaard (Tudor), Giovanni Lonardi (Polti-VisitMalta), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Luca Mozzato (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step).

And what about the breakaway artists? It’s a long shot, but don’t count out riders like Dries De Bondt (Decathlon AG2R), Taco van der Hoorn (Intermarché-Wanty), Kasper Asgreen (EF Education-EasyPost), or Kevin Geniets (Groupama-FDJ).

Top favorites: Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Milan Fretin (Cofidis), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R) and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Long shots: Casper van Uden (Picnic PostNL), Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), Matteo Moschetti (Q36.5), Maikel Zijlaard (Tudor), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), Orluis Aular (Movistar), Luca Mozzato (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek) and Gerben Thijssen (Intermarché-Wanty)