Favorites stage 12 Vuelta a Espana 2025 | With the Angliru in mind, the breakaway riders smell their opportunity

Stage 12 starts in Laredo, a small town with 11,000 inhabitants, but it actually lent its name to Laredo, Texas. That city is much larger, with 240,000 residents, and is famous for several Western films and songs. No gunslingers in Spain, but we can expect some heavy artillery in the battle for the breakaway.

The route seems well-suited for a long escape, though we’ve said that before. The first 30 kilometers are mostly flat, but from Arredondo onward, the road starts climbing. The Puerto de Alisas isn’t very steep (5.9% over 8.6 km), but plenty of climbers will be eager to attack there and form the day’s break.

A long valley will then guide the riders westward. This section is mostly flat again, with the occasional uncategorized hill. After the Alto de Hijas (3.1 km at 6.4%), there's an intermediate sprint in Barros, after which the riders can prepare for the day’s final test, and it’s no easy one.

The Collada de Brenes is shorter than the first climb but much steeper (7 km at 7.9%). What’s more, three kilometers average over 9%, with sections as steep as 16%, at times, it’s seriously steep. The summit of this climb comes 24 kilometers from the finish, and there's a bonus sprint at the top: if the breakaway has been caught by then, we can expect a fierce battle among the GC contenders. And even if there are still riders up the road...

A fairly tricky descent ends 16 kilometers from the finish, after which the route continues with a false flat toward Los Corrales de Buelna. There's a good chance a breakaway rider could take the win again, but if the GC riders go all-in, we might see some significant time gaps, although the looming Angliru on Friday will likely act as a deterrent.

Climbs
41.4 km: Puerto de Alisas (8.6 km at 5.9%)
122.0 km: Collada de Brenes (7.0 km at 7.9%)

Times
Start: 2 PM (local time) | 08:00 AM (Easter Time)
Finish: 5:22 PM (local time) | 11:22 AM (Easter Time)

It may even get a little wet in the morning, but during the dry afternoon it won't get warmer than 22 degrees. A northwest wind won't get in the riders' way, though it will offer some cooling. Although that doesn't seem to be necessary.

A day like this could truly go in any direction. The final climb is tough enough to create gaps. So we look at the best climbers in the race, and that immediately brings us to Jonas Vingegaard. The Visma | Lease a Bike leader just looks far too strong on the climbs. The only ones who can still hang on somewhat are João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) and Tom Pidcock (Q36.5).

Other general classification riders hoping for a good day are Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), and Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers). But chances are stage 12 won’t be one for the GC contenders, with the fearsome Angliru already looming in the back of everyone’s mind.

That’s why many breakaway specialists see this route as a golden opportunity. Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) looks like the man to beat, he already has two stage wins under his belt. But it could also be the turn of teammates Marc Soler or Juan Ayuso. Then again, they may want to save some legs for Friday’s mountain showdown.

So attention shifts to the pure attackers, those without GC responsibilities. Movistar is still hunting for a stage win and hopes to shine with riders like Javier Romo, Pablo Castrillo, and Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda. Carlos Canal is another name to watch: fast, but also decent in the climbs. The same goes for Brandon Rivera (INEOS Grenadiers) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ).

Jayco-AlUla might send Eddie Dunbar or Chris Harper up the road, while XDS-Astana has a long list of potential attackers, especially Harold Martin Lopez, Sergio Higuita, and Harold Tejada. Other names worth keeping an eye on include Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Marco Frigo (Israel – Premier Tech), Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R), Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers), and Jesús Herrada (Cofidis).

Top favorites: Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)
Outsiders: Pablo Castrillo (Movistar), Jay Vine, Marc Soler, Juan Ayuso (all UAE team Emirates - XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Harold Martin Lopez, Harold Tejada (both XDS-Astana), Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers), Javier Romo, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda (both Movistar), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL) and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)