Favorites stage 15 Giro d'Italia 2025 | Back to a climb that brings back big memories for Pogacar

The Giro organizers are making sure riders head into week three well-tested. Stage 15, from Flume Veneto to Asiago, is 219 kilometers long, with a significant portion uphill. That means around six hours in the saddle — thankfully followed by a much-needed rest day on Monday.

The stage begins in Flume Veneto (yes, in the Veneto region). The first 100 km are mostly flat, though the Muro di ca’ del Poggio (1.0 km at 12%) awaits after about 45 km — a nasty appetizer. If a breakaway hasn’t gone by then, stronger climbers might use this ramp as a launchpad.

From there, the route follows the Piave River westward, and at exactly 103.5 km, the climbing begins — up Monte Grappa. This is the climb where Tadej Pogacar (yet again) showcased his dominance in last year’s penultimate stage. However, this time the Grappa is only climbed once — and via the easier side.

If you can call it easy: 25.1 km at 5.7% is still a serious test. That average gradient is also a bit misleading, as Monte Grappa has a two-part structure with a flat middle section. Those are included in the average gradient as well. Most of the climbing sits between 6–8%.

After the summit of Monte Grappa, nearly 100 km still remain. The first 30 km are downhill, then a 20 km valley leads to the base of the final categorized climb: Dori (16.4 km at 5.4%). It’s what riders call a "roller".

Once at the top, 30 more kilometers remain. From here, things could go two ways: if GC contenders are dropped, this is where gaps might grow. But if the favorites all stick together, we may see a status quo. Aside from one short ramp of 1.5 km at 8%, the road is mostly flat into Asiago, which last hosted a Giro finish in 2017.

Climbs
44.7 km: Muro di ca' del Poggio (1.0 km at 12%)
128.6 km: Monte Grappa (25.1 km at 5.7%)
191.5 km: Dori (16.4 km at 5.4%)

Times
Start: 11:25 AM local time (5:25 AM EDT)
Finish: around 5:12 PM local time (11:12 AM EDT)

The Giro appears to have lucked out for Sunday. Despite frequent rain around Monte Grappa in recent days, it’s expected to stay dry during the stage. Nonetheless, with temperatures just above 5°C, riders will need to dress warmly. Winds will be moderate and coming from the south.

This stage is reminiscent of Wednesday’s San Pellegrino stage — one major climb midway, but no immediate follow-up. That day was predicted to favor the breakaway, but GC man Richard Carapaz ultimately won. The difference: that climb came closer to the finish, while Sunday’s final climb is farther out and it's the last stage before a rest day.

With four major mountain stages still to come in the final week, stage 15 could be the second real breakaway opportunity of the Giro. At this point in a Grand Tour, the strongest riders in previous break attempts tend to reappear. Those who proved the strongest on Wednesday, yet were caught in the closing stages of the race, could return here.

We're talking about Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), King of the Mountains Lorenzo Fortunato and his XDS-Astana teammate Wout Poels, stage 8 winner Luke Plapp, and Nairo Quintana (Movistar). Their move toward Castelnovo ne’ Monte was doomed by poor cooperation, partly because Plapp didn’t pull. If the Australian is in the break again Sunday, it could be a factor once more.

Monte Grappa is significantly less steep than San Pellegrino, and that opens the door for riders with more punch and less climbing ability. That brings to mind all-rounders like Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), who also have B-options in their strong teams, like Mathias Vacek and Wilco Kelderman. A team like Decathlon AG2R, with Andrea Vendrame, Nicolas Prodhomme, and Dorian Godon, could also play several cards in a breakaway.

Other potential attackers include Stefano Oldani (Cofidis), Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step), Embret Svestad-Bardseng (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Edoardo Zambanini (Bahrain Victorious), Kevin Geniets (Groupama-FDJ), Brandon Rivera (INEOS Grenadiers), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Romain Bardet (Picnic PostNL), and Nicola Conci and Diego Ulissi from XDS-Astana.

And what about the GC contenders? On paper, the third week offers more opportunities for full-scale battles than this stage. But earlier in this Giro we’ve already seen that some teams are willing to take the initiative. Based on explosiveness, Isaac del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) could all try something in the finale. Or perhaps someone like Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) gives it a go with a late attack. Although, everything could of course change after Friday’s events — should some riders sense blood.

Disclaimer: At the time of publication, the medical consequences of the crash in Saturday’s stage are not yet known.

Top favorites: Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders: Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R) and Wilco Kelderman (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Isaac del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Diego Ulissi (XDS-Astana), Stefano Oldani (Cofidis) and Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step)