Favorites stage 15 Vuelta a España 2025 | Pedersen has a chance, while Philipsen and co will need a miracle

The fifteenth stage starts on Sunday from Vegadeo, and the entire peloton will have to leave the rollers warm, because it's immediately uphill. The Puerto a Garganta will not be super steep, but at 16.4 kilometers, it is incredibly long. You can bet that the speeds here will be super high. We wish those who have to drop out here a nice day...

The stage is 167.8 kilometers, so it's still quite long. That means we still have a long way to go after the first climb (first category). It goes up and down constantly, on annoying, uncategorized bumps of around 6 percent, to the foot of the Alto de Barbeitos. At 11.9 kilometers, it is again long, but at an average of 3.8 percent, it is a bit milder.

However, don't be fooled by those percentages, because the first four kilometers will be more difficult, after which the road flattens out. Even after that, the legs can't relax, because the top of the Barbeitos is after 55 kilometers, and a steep descent from Castroverde only after 98 kilometers. After more than 130 kilometers, we cross one more hill before it really flattens out.

The big question is: who has survived all this? Shouldn't the fast men just join the breakaway? Or will the sprinter teams close the gap from Castroverde? The leading group will have to keep pedaling towards the finish line in Monforte de Lemos, and if riders like Mads Pedersen have joined them, there will be a battle to break away from them, even on the flat and downhill sections.

Climbs
16.5 km: Puerto a Garganta (16.4 km at 5.1%)
54.7 km: Alto de Barbeitos (11.9 km at 3.8%)

Times
Start: 1:12 PM local time (07:12 AM EDT)
Finish: around 5:30 PM local time (11:30 AM EDT)

The weather forecasts are looking great! Even without rain, temperatures will rise well above 20 degrees in the valley, with a slight chance of a drop of rain here and there. The wind will blow from the west at force 2 to 3. In the final, the wind force will decrease, so echelons seem unrealistic. A warm finish at 25 degrees plus seems more likely.

A bizarre stage, with the first half being a nasty mountain stage and the second half almost entirely flat. It could very well be a day for the breakaway riders, but the final stretch could be disastrous. If we do end up sprinting, Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) might be the man to beat. What's more, he can also strike from the breakaway!

But Pedersen isn't the only sprinter who can survive a climb. Men like Orluis Aular (Movistar), Fabio Christen (Q36.5), Guillermo Thomas Silva (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA), and Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) have already proven themselves. Still, Ben Turner (INEOS Grenadiers) is a formidable challenger in particular, having already won a stage. For riders like Ethan Vernon (Israel - Premier Tech) and, of course, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), it's a case of hoping to survive the opening phase. They are the fastest riders in the race...

However, a sprint is not guaranteed. The grueling first few hours make it attractive for the attackers. Riders such as Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS Grenadiers), Victor Campenaerts (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) have the climbing skills and the engine to keep up. At INEOS Grenadiers, they have to switch gears after Egan Bernal's collapse: now men like Magnus Sheffield and Victor Langellotti will get their chance.

Movistar still has no victory in the home race, but besides Aular, they also have Carlos Canal, Jefferson Cepeda, and Javier Romo. Sean Quinn (EF Education - EasyPost) also has the profile to be successful here. The same goes for Harold Martin Lopez (XDS-Astana), Nico Denz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), and Bjorn Koerdt (Picnic PostNL). And will someone from UAE Team Emirates - XRG get another chance? If so, it might be Mikkel Bjerg or Felix Grossschartner.

Top favorite: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders: Orluis Aular (Movistar), Ben Turner (INEOS Grenadiers), Marco Frigo (Israel - Premier Tech) and Nico Denz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Team Emirates), Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS Grenadiers), Victor Campenaerts (Visma | Lease a Bike),Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Sean Quinn (EF Education - EasyPost), Fabio Christen (Q36.5), Carlos Canal (Movistar), Bjorn Koerdt, Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Victor Langellotti (INEOS Grenadiers), Ethan Vernon (Israel - Premier Tech) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)