Favorites for stage 2 of the 2025 Vuelta a España | Will Vingegaard already take risks already with the team time trial in mind?

The tourist-heavy region of Piedmont is eager to promote itself as a (cycling holiday) destination, so we’re staying in the area for day two of the Vuelta a España. While Saturday featured a flat stage between Turin and Novara, on Sunday the route starts from Alba and immediately heads into the hills.

The stage covers just under 160 kilometers. After the start, riders head west for nearly 50 kilometers before turning south. With a northerly wind blowing all day, that should be a small blessing for the riders in the bunch.

After 68.4 kilometers, there's an intermediate sprint in Busca, but let’s not beat around the bush: normally, only the final climb (and the lead-up to it) is truly interesting in this second stage of the Vuelta a España.

Officially, the climb to Limone Piemonte is 9.8 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.1%, but that doesn't tell the full story. It’s a crescendo climb, steadily increasing in steepness as it goes.

The first three kilometers hover around 4%, which can practically be called "Spanish flat." From kilometers three to eight, the gradient rises to around 5–6%, and then comes the explosion: the final 1.8 kilometers feature ramps above 8%. So the strategy seems clear, save your legs until the right moment.

In 2002, the Giro d’Italia finished on this same climb. Back then, it came down to a sprint between GC contenders, with Stefano Garzelli taking the win.

Climbs
159.6 km: Limone Piemonte (9.8 km at 5.1%)

Times
Start: 1:53 PM (local time) | 7:53 AM (Eastern Time)
Finish: around 5:20 PM | 11:53 AM (Eastern Time)

There will be a tailwind on the final climb, not very strong, but it could slightly favor attackers or stronger climbers. Temperatures in Limone Piemonte will hover around 17°C, with a chance of light rain.

So the Giro d’Italia heads straight into the mountains, although this Limone Piemonte climb could more accurately be labeled as mid-mountain terrain. The big question beforehand: will the top favorites already go on the attack here, or will they keep their cards close to their chest this early in the race?

Take Jonas Vingegaard, for example. The Dane from Visma | Lease a Bike is, in principle, the top favorite on a finish like this. But does he really want to burden himself this early with the hassle that comes with wearing the red jersey? Not just on Sunday, but potentially also on Monday and Tuesday. Add to that the possibility that he’d have to ride the team time trial on day five in the red leader’s jersey instead of Visma | Lease a Bike’s advanced skinsuit.

The same goes for UAE Emirates-XRG’s two stars: João Almeida and Juan Ayuso. There’s certainly some internal competition between them, so this could be an opportunity to gain an early psychological advantage over the other. And don’t count out Jay Vine either, this kind of climb is where he can best showcase his Zwift-honed climbing abilities.

Then there are the riders who definitely want to go for the win. Giulio Ciccone of Lidl-Trek would be highly motivated to take a leader’s jersey in a grand tour on home soil. The same goes for Bahrain Victorious rider Antonio Tiberi, who has made no secret of his intentions in the lead-up to this Vuelta.

Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) should also be very capable here with his explosive style. The Brit is being positioned as team leader by Q36.5, and this kind of stage suits him well, making it a realistic scenario for the team to try and control the breakaway on Sunday.

If the favorites end up looking at each other, then other general classification contenders might try to sneak away in the final two kilometers. Riders like Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers), Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R), and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) fall into that category, but they also run the risk of a counterattack.

Then there are riders who might either try their luck from a breakaway or simply have nothing to lose. Think of Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana), Leo Bisiaux (Decathlon AG2R), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar), Marco Frigo (Israel–Premier Tech), Victor Langelotti (INEOS), Lukas Nerurkar (EF Education–EasyPost), and David Gaudu (Groupama–FDJ), for example.

Top favorites: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Tom Pidcock (Q36.5)
Outsiders: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG) and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)
Long shots: Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jay Vine (UAE Emirates-XRG), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers), Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R) and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious)