Favorites stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 | Can Van der Poel lead out Philipsen after gravel-stage win?

Anyone looking at the profile of stage 3 might initially think it is a standard sprint stage. But the route from Cortona to Magliano de’ Marsi is a long one: 225 kilometres in total. On top of that, there are nearly 2,500 metres of climbing packed into the day. So this is not simply a straightforward opportunity for the pure sprinters, even if there is only one categorised climb on the course.

That climb comes after around 80 kilometres of racing and is not likely to play a major role in how the stage unfolds. In the finale, however, the road continues to rise and fall. With around 60 kilometres to go, the riders face an uphill section of roughly seven kilometres at an average gradient of 4 percent.

It is not especially steep, but after that there is barely a flat metre left until roughly the final ten kilometres. These are not major climbs, yet after a long and demanding day in the saddle, the sprinters could find themselves under pressure.

We should not expect anything too unusual in the final part of the stage, as there are no corners at all in the last three kilometres. The road does still drag uphill after the flamme rouge, though, at an average of 2.5 percent. So if it does come down to a sprint, it will not be one contested on fully fresh legs.

Start: 10:40 AM local time
Finish: around 4:00 PM local time

Nothing too remarkable is expected from the weather. Temperatures should sit around 15 degrees Celsius, with a light westerly breeze and only a small chance of some precipitation. If anything falls, it is unlikely to be more than light drizzle.

There are plenty of fast men at Tirreno-Adriatico, and they have all travelled to Italy with ambition. When we spoke to some of them before the race began, there were already doubts about this third stage. Lidl-Trek powerhouse Jonathan Milan, for example, rated his chances of success in the final stage more highly than in this one.

Paul Magnier of Soudal Quick-Step counted two sprint opportunities before the start, and this third stage should be one of them. Alpecin-Premier Tech will also be keen to sprint with Jasper Philipsen. Mathieu van der Poel, winner of Tuesday’s gravel stage, could play an important role in the lead-out. Wout van Aert should also fancy his chances in an uphill sprint after such a long and demanding day.

Who else is in the mix? Tobias Lund Andresen is certainly one to watch, having already been one of the standout riders of the season so far. The Dane took several wins in Australia and was among the strongest riders during Opening Weekend, so we rate his chances highly here as well. Filippo Ganna of INEOS Grenadiers also has the power to handle this kind of uphill drag to the line.

Also worth mentioning are Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), Madis Mikhels (EF Education-EasyPost), Luca Mozzato (Tudor), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) and Giovanni Lonardi (Polti-VisitMalta), all of them quick finishers after a difficult race.

Top favorites: Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA-CGM) en Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step)

Outsiders: Jasper Philipsen, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) en Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla)

Long shots: Arnaud de Lie (Lotto-Intermarché), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL), Madis Mikhels (EF Education-EasyPost), Luca Mozzato (Tudor), Corbin Strong (NSN) en Giovanni Lonardi (Polti-VisitMalta)