Favorites stage 3 Tour de France 2023 | One for the riders with turbo legs and genes (or maybe not?)

After three days, the fantastic Grand Départ in the Basque Country comes to an end. Starting from Amorebieta, we embark on a big loop through the autonomous Spanish region, but with the finish line set in France for the first time. IDLProCycling.com provides further insights!

Shortly after noon, the peloton departs from the Basque hinterlands in Amorebieta, passing through Durango after five kilometers. Like many places in the region, these locations also host their own cycling races: the men's race GP Primavera and the women's race Durango-Durango.

The riders won't have much time to think about these races as the first challenge of the day quickly emerges: the Cote de Trabakua, a 4.1-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 5.4 percent, which shouldn't pose much difficulty for the average rider in the Tour peloton. After a short descent, the second obstacle follows: the Coté de Milloi, a 2.3-kilometer climb at 4.5 percent.

From that hill, we reach the coast fairly quickly, and for the following hours, we won't lose sight of the North Spanish Sea. Along this stretch, there are constant ups and downs, but apart from two third-category climbs – the second of which can be unexpectedly challenging – it's not overly exciting. However, a certain team might maintain a high pace here to tire out the sprinters.

After 150 kilometers, we enter French territory and begin at sea level in Saint-Jean-de-Luz. From there, we head slightly inland before turning northward towards the finishing town of Bayonne. These sections are not entirely flat, but they shouldn't pose significant difficulties for a Tour peloton.

We approach the finish on a wide road, where a crucial point lies two kilometers before the end. At that point, there's a 180-degree turn from the main road, followed quickly by a sharp left turn. Just before the flamme rouge, a roundabout must be navigated, leading to a gentle left turn for the final sprint. Seizing and maintaining the inside line could prove to be the winning move!

Times
Start: 1:15 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:19 p.m.

The temperature is a comfortable 24 degrees Celsius, although the majority of the race will be against headwind. The wind may pick up later in the afternoon compared to the start, so managing efforts will be crucial in the final moments.

After two demanding days, this stage should typically be a task for the sprinters. Firstly, Jasper Philipsen comes to mind, as he already demonstrated his climbing prowess on Sunday. With Mathieu van der Poel likely serving as his strongest lead-out man in this Tour, the Alpecin-Deceuninck team seems to be fully aligned towards Philipsen.

With the altimeters in the first half of this race, it could still become an attrition race, with powerhouses like Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) naturally emerging at the forefront. These two men are promising in every conceivable scenario for this stage.

Moving on to the pure sprinters, we immediately think of the Dutch duo Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal Quick-Step) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla). Both riders mentioned they see this stage as an opportunity, but after two fast and challenging stages, they might have changed their perspective. When they reach the finish line, they will undoubtedly transform into predators.

Jakobsen and Groenewegen are in the same boat as other pure sprinters such as Sam Welsford(Team DSM-Firmenich), Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny), Mark Cavendish (Astana) and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious): They hope for a controllable breakaway to form and then sprint for victory at the end in Bayonne.

Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), on the other hand, are among the guys who handle a hill in good spirits, but are they willing to sacrifice their teams for it? We doubt it;

Going further down the list, we have riders like Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X), Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) and Luca Mozzato (Arkéa Samsic). They all want to be involved surely, but winning under normal circumstances seems like an illusion.

Is there really no chance of an early breakaway surviving until the end? We believe it's highly unlikely. At this stage of the Tour, there are still too many teams and sprinters eager to make their mark whenever a significant opportunity presents itself.

Top favorites:Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-AlUla)
Outsiders: Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal Quick-Step), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Longshots: Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny), Sam Welsford (DSM-Firmenich), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Jordi Meeus (BORA-hansgrohe), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies)