Favorites stage 4 AlUla Tour 2025 | Oh oh oh, there we have that grueling plateau

The fourth stage of the AlUla Tour starts at Maraya, the world’s largest mirror building, located in the heart of the Saudi Arabian desert. From this remarkable starting point, the riders will complete two loops around Hegra, a UNESCO World Heritage site often compared to Petra in Jordan, one of the Seven Modern Wonders of the World.

In terms of the race itself, the final hour of this stage will be the most crucial, as for the fourth year in a row, riders will take on the Skyviews of Harrat Uwayrid. This brutal 2.9-kilometer climb at a staggering 12.0% (!) average gradient has shaped the AlUla Tour’s general classification in recent years, and 2025 is unlikely to be any different.

After the demanding ascent, nearly ten kilometers remain on the plateau, meaning things could turn tactical. Last year, Simon Yates claimed victory here, following in the footsteps of Ruben Guerreiro (2023) and Maxim Van Gils (2022), who both built their overall triumphs on this very stage.

Start: 1:00 PM local time (5:00 AM EST)
Finish: 4:17 PM local time (8:17 AM EST)

The first thing to analyze when assessing the weather in Saudi Arabia is, of course, the wind. However, on Friday, there will barely be any, so it is unlikely to play a major role. The temperature is expected to be around 22° Celsius, making for relatively mild racing conditions.

Wednesday’s stage to Mountain Wikrah served as the perfect indicator of what to expect on Friday. Based on that performance, Tom Pidcock is the clear favorite for stage four. The Q36.5 rider dominated on Mountain Wikrah, distancing everyone and signaling his intent for overall victory in AlUla. That said, it's not over until we reach the finish line, of course.

The closest challenger to Pidcock was Rainer Kepplinger (Bahrain Victorious), followed closely by Alan Hatherly and Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), who were also in the mix. Given that this is their sponsor’s home race, they could pose the biggest threat to Pidcock. Hatherly, as a fellow mountain biker, and Dunbar, a pure climber with stage wins in the Vuelta, both have the qualities required to make the Brit sweat.

Mountain Wikrah was a unique scenario, due to a neutralized section followed by five kilometers of all-out racing. Riders such as Frank van den Broek (Picnic PostNL), Rafal Majka (UAE-Emirates XRG), Stefan de Bod (Terenggaru), Yannis Voisard (Tudor), and Fredrik Dversnes (Uno-X) generally perform better in longer, more grueling stages, like the one on Friday.

Norwegian team Uno-X has several cards to play, with Adne Holter, Jonas Abrahamsen, and Johannes Kulset providing tactical options. Abrahamsen is especially known for breakaways — perhaps he could make a move on Friday? A potential ally might be Mikkel Bjerg (UAE-Emirates XRG) if the situation calls for it.

Top favorite: Tom Pidcock (Q36.5)
Outsiders: Alan Hatherly, Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla) and Rainer Kepplinger (Bahrain Victorious)
Long shots: Frank van den Broek (Picnic PostNL), Rafal Majka (UAE-Emirates XRG), Stefan de Bod (Terenggaru), Yannis Voisard (Tudor), Fredrik Dversnes and Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X)